Tuesday, February 7, 2017

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2288.08  Holding below is bearish..
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

It was pretty much a blah day on the Dow Monday with a bit of excitement out the gate, followed by some retracement and finally almost nothing going on after lunch for the rest of the day.  By the time all the shouting was over we were down all of 19 points.  I'm glad I called the day uncertain.  It's hard to find much of any direction with this sort of action.  Now let's move ahead to Tuesday and see if Mr. Market can gain any traction, one way or the other.

The technicals

The VIX:  Last night I thought the VIX might be going lower on Monday but instead it rose 3.65% after emitting a perfect doji star, both opening and closing right to the penny at 11.37.  And it was a harami to boot, centered about last Friday's tall red candle.  So who knows where this one is going next.  Not me.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are once again essentially flat at 1:20 AM EST with ES down just one tick and YM up two ticks.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2285.17 to 2288.08.  And that's enough to place ES back below its new pivot, so this indicator flips right back to bearish again.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January   10      2       7           1       0.846    595

February   2      0       2           0       1.000    279

     And the winner is...

On Monday ES put in a dark cloud cover which is de facto bearish.  But all the other charts I like to look at are pretty wishy-washy tonight, and ES itself is once again essentially flat, just like last night at this hour.  So I guess I will once again just punt and call Tuesday uncertain.  Hey, when you're sitting at the blackjack table in Vegas there's no law that says you have to play every single hand.  It's OK to walk away and do something else now and then.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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