Monday, February 6, 2017

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2285.17  Holding above is bullish..
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Well I'm sure glad I called last Friday as "uncertain" because I wasn't expecting a 187 point news-driven pop in the Dow.  But it is what it is so let's take a gander at the Sunday night charts to see how this changes the picture for Monday as we enter the second week of February.
The technicals

The VIX:  And it was also just as well that I punted on the VIX last Thursday night, because that chart wasn't really clear (to me anyway)>  We got an 8% drop on Friday that was enough to cause a bearish stochastic crossover on a tall red candle.  Now the net impression here is bearish.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are basically flat at 12:25 AM EST with ES up just one tick and YM up 0.08% while NQ is down a tad. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2273.25 to 2285.17.  ES is now back above its new pivot so this indicator flips back to bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January   10      2       7           1       0.846    595
February   2      0       1           0       1.000    279

     And the winner is...

On Friday the Dow put in a big gap-up marubozu that completed a fresh bullish stochastic crossover.  It's still a ways from overbought and from its upper BB too, suggesting there remains a bit of room to run.  The trans also snapped a five day losing streak with a descending RTC exit for a bullish setup.  That all looks good except that the futures aren't participating, being flat in the Sunday overnight.  In ordinary times, I might just not worry about that but these are far from ordinary times so I'm just going to have to wait and see about this one, even though the bias looks generally bullish right now.  So bottom line, Monday uncertain.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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