Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain....
• ES pivot 2118.33.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next  week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ is now a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well I was close on Thursday.  The Dow headed off int he wrong direction out the gate but then spent the rest of the day clawing its way higher.  If the bell had rung at 4:30 instead of 4, we might have had the higher close I was expecting.  But I guess that's the nature of holiday weeks.  We now move on to the end of the week and the month

The technicals

The Dow:  On Thursday the Dow was unable to extend Wednesday's gains and put in a small hanging man but also curved the stochastic around in preparation for a bullish crossover.  So there's no clear guidance here.

The VIX:  And on Thursday teh VIX gave us an inverted hammer to close with a scant 0.30% gain.  Indicators are halfway between overbought and oversold so we're kind of in no-man's land here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are barely changed at 12:34 AM EDT with ES dead even.  On Thursday ES managed a skinny hanging man at the top of Wednesday's gains.  That was good for a bullish stochastic crossover though.  But with the overnight flat, there's little guidance here for Friday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2115.50 to 2118.33. ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index: On Thursday the dollar confirmed Wednesday's spinning top and that leaves us with a bearish evening star that's now come off the upper BB.  With indicators still quite overbought and a bearish stochastic crossover, the dollar looks lower on Friday.

Euro:  Ans similarly, the euro on Thursday confirmed its bottoming spinning top from Wednesday with a move back up to 1.0957.  We now have a completed bullish stochastic crossover , indicators are rising but still oversold, and the overnight is moving higher so that all points to a higher close on Friday for the euro.

Transportation:  In a bearish sign, the trans underperformed the rest of the market once again, down nearly a full percent Thursday.  They're now oversold but there's no sign of a bullish stochastic crossover yet.  I do see a symmetrical triangle forming but it's got a ways to run still so nothing clear here either.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       4           2       0.615    581

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts are being coy.  There's little guidance from any of the usual indicators.  There's not even much to go on from history as the last day of May is generally pretty wishy-washy.  I'd love to go out with a good call but honestly I'm just not seeing it right now so I guess all that leaves is to call Friday uncertain.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

VZ actually lost three cents on Thursday but did it with a small harami spinning top and a stochastic that's just about to form a bullish crossover.  It was also a bullish setup on a descending RTC exit so I now bless this stock as a swing trade buy.

Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher.
• ES pivot 2115.50.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ now close to a swing trade buy.

Recap

Whew - I think it was a really good idea to call Wednesday uncertain because although there was nothing bullish in the candles, the Dow managed a 121 point gain anyway.  So what's next?  Let's look for answers in the charts.

The technicals

The Dow:  With its big move lower on Tuesday the Dow looked ripe for a bounce on Wednesday.  But you know the old saying - never buy something just because it's down.  So I took a pass and indeed the Dow retraced about 2/3 of its losses on Wednesday with a 121 point gain.  That sent RSI higher from oversold and flattened out the stochastic in preparation for a bullish crossover.  So at this point, this chart now looks higher.

The VIX:  After a truly breathtaking pop on Tuesday, the VIX was not only unable to keep it going but it lost 5.62% on a bearish engulfing pattern that makes more downside on Thursday look likely.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:11 AM EDT with ES down 0.06%. ES did quite well on Wednesday retracing most of Tuesday's losses in a move that arrested the descent of the indicators and moved the stochastic into position for a bullish crossover.  The bullish harami makes me think more upside might be coming.  But the lack of follow-through in the overnight is certainly a note of caution.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2109.33 to 2115.50.  That means ES is now above hte new pivot so this indicator goes back to bullish.

Dollar index:  This is why we wait for confirmation.  On Tuesday the dollar looked ripe for an evening star with a big yawning gap to fill.  Instead on Wednesday it moved even higher.  Admittedly not by much and with a red spinning top, and hugging the upper BB, but it wasn't a loss.  Still with the indicators now crazy-overbought I'm really thinking we're going lower on Thursday.

Euro:  Now this is interesting.  On Wednesday the euro put in a small green spinning top trading mostly under its lower BB to arrest its seven day-long slide.  That was enough to give us a bullish setup on a falling RTC.and with the indicators all highly oversold I'd not be surprised to see the euro move higher on Thursday.

Transportation:  After a big week-long blood-letting, the trans finally managed a non-trivial gain on Wednesday, retracing most of Tuesday's losses and clawing off the lower BB, right up to the edge of their descending RTC for bullish setup.  Throw in a nascent bullish stochastic crossover and this one looks higher for Thursday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      4       5           2       0.667    618

     And the winner is...

Despite a move lower in the futures in the overnight, the rest of the charts look just sufficiently bullish for me to go out on a limb and call Thursday higher.

Single Stock Trader

VZ continues to play it coy.  It gained a bit on Wednesday but with a second spinning top in a row, this one a bullish harami.  Still with indicators remaining oversold, I think this one might be worth looking into.  It's not the ideal setup but it has possibilities.

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2085.92.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ now close to a swing trade buy.

Recap

Hmm - apparently Mr. Market is still not over his Fed-induced snit from last Friday as the selling continued unabated Tuesday ending just off session lows.  At least it was not entirely unexpected as we pointed out last night.  So now let's continue on to Wednesday and see when we might sound the all-clear.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow took a nasty little 190 point dump on Tuesday and it was enough to send the indicators from overbought to oversold in a single day, a fairly rare occurrence.  In fact the last time was saw this was August 11, 2010!  And at that time there was a bunch more downside to go, though we also had a 200 day MA cross going which is not the case now.  Still, this drop's got "falling knife" written all over it so until I see at least a reversal candle, I'm not touching it.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote that the VIX "looks primed for more upside."  And was it ever, with a nearly 16% gap-up pop on Tuesday that took the indicators from oversold nearly to overbought.  The resulting inverted hammer is a reversal sign and there is a gap now that'll be wanting filling but we need some confirmation.  A move lower on Wednesday would form a  bearish evening star.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:33 AM EDT with ES down 0.07%.  ES had a bad day Tuesday though no worse than just three weeks ago on May 5th ending five days of congestion with a big sneeze downward.  That was enough to send all the indicators off overbought though not quite to oversold.  So we still can't call a reversal and the overnight isn't showing much enthusiasm either.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2126.08 to 2085.92. So we remain below the new pivot and therefore this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:  Like everything else on Tuesday the dollar had an outsized move, gapping up a huge 1.35% to trade entirely above its upper BB - highly unusual.  That drove the indicators quite overbought and flattened out the stochastic to make way for a bearish crossover.  But we're not there yet.  And as we saw back in March when the dollar spent three weeks climbing its upper BB, just because it's gone up doesn't mean it can't go higher.  So we need to wait a day for confirmation.  I'd expect a move lower soon but it might not be Wednesday.

Euro:  And on Tuesday much noise was made about the euro's fall back to 1.0874.  But the fact is, we've been here six times already this year.  This time though we hit the lower BB and the indicators are highly oversold (RSI=3.79).  Still we remain in a descending RTC with no sign of a reversal candle so until then I just have to wait & see.

Transportation:  The trans, which have been having a hard time lately had an even harder one Tuesday, tanking 1.55% to cascade down their lower BB.  this move has flattened out the stochastic in preparation for a bullish crossover but the indicators are still not oversold so it's still too soon to call a reversal.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      4       4           2       0.667    618

     And the winner is...

On Tuesday the market fell far enough and fast enough to make a relief rally or at least a DCB not out of the question.  However, technically there are still no signs of a reversal and all the charts continue to look bearish.  But because there's some doubt here I'm going to settle for calling Wednesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I recommended staying away from VZ and that proved to be a good idea since it fell along with the rest of the Dow on Tuesday.  The resulting spinning top touched its lower BB which has been a good reversal sign in the past though the indicators are still not quite as oversold as I'd like to see.  If this one looks to be finding support at the open on Wednesday (an event I'll never see), it might be looking attractive.  For now though I'm still waiting.

Tuesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 2126.08.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

I hope everyone had a safe and relaxing Memorial Day weekend as we took time out from our daily activities to honor those who gave their lives for our country.  But now it's time to get back to work.  We note a disappointing, Fed inspired decline last Friday and check the charts to see how that may affect this holiday-shortened week.

The technicals

The Dow:  With three down days in a row and indicators only just now moving off overbought it looks like there's still more downside available here for Tuesday.

The VIX:  Meanwhile the VIX continues to hover just barely north of 12 near yearlong support.  With a hammer on Friday and oversold indicators it looks primed for more upside.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:32 AM EDT with ES down 0.20%.  On Friday ES put in a dark cloud cover that started the indicators moving lower from an overbought peak.  The overnight is confirming that so I'd say this chart looks lower for Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2125.00 to 2126.08. After falling below the old number ES remains well below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  The dollar took a huge pop on Friday with a big green bullish engulfing marubozu that took the indicators clear to overbought but still short of the upper BB.  So in the absence of a bearish candle I'd have to think the dollar could go higher again Tuesday.

Euro:  And the euro disconfirmed Thursday's bullish piercing pattern with another leg down on Friday.  And with the Sunday overnight the gapping down huge, already to the lower BB at 1.0942 it looks like a lower close on Tuesday, though most of the damage is probably already done.

Transportation:  And finally here's an ominous sign - on Friday the trans dropped a big 0.81%, far more than the rest of the market.  And they gave away support at 8802 with indicators hovering just above a lower BB that's now dropping away.  That all looks fairly negative in my book.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        5      4       4           2       0.667    428

     And the winner is...

The first day after a long weekend holiday is always problematic to call.  However, tonight the charts are all pretty much in agreement and the verdict is bearish so I'm calling Tuesday lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ got caught up in the general negativity on Friday and moved lower.  With two inverted hammers in a row and indicators no longer oversold this stock is no longer a swing buy.