Friday, May 29, 2015

Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday uncertain....
  • ES pivot 2118.33.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next  week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ is now a swing trade buy.

Well I was close on Thursday.  The Dow headed off int he wrong direction out the gate but then spent the rest of the day clawing its way higher.  If the bell had rung at 4:30 instead of 4, we might have had the higher close I was expecting.  But I guess that's the nature of holiday weeks.  We now move on to the end of the week and the month

The technicals

The Dow:  On Thursday the Dow was unable to extend Wednesday's gains and put in a small hanging man but also curved the stochastic around in preparation for a bullish crossover.  So there's no clear guidance here.

The VIX:  And on Thursday teh VIX gave us an inverted hammer to close with a scant 0.30% gain.  Indicators are halfway between overbought and oversold so we're kind of in no-man's land here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are barely changed at 12:34 AM EDT with ES dead even.  On Thursday ES managed a skinny hanging man at the top of Wednesday's gains.  That was good for a bullish stochastic crossover though.  But with the overnight flat, there's little guidance here for Friday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2115.50 to 2118.33. ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index: On Thursday the dollar confirmed Wednesday's spinning top and that leaves us with a bearish evening star that's now come off the upper BB.  With indicators still quite overbought and a bearish stochastic crossover, the dollar looks lower on Friday.

Euro:  Ans similarly, the euro on Thursday confirmed its bottoming spinning top from Wednesday with a move back up to 1.0957.  We now have a completed bullish stochastic crossover , indicators are rising but still oversold, and the overnight is moving higher so that all points to a higher close on Friday for the euro.

Transportation:  In a bearish sign, the trans underperformed the rest of the market once again, down nearly a full percent Thursday.  They're now oversold but there's no sign of a bullish stochastic crossover yet.  I do see a symmetrical triangle forming but it's got a ways to run still so nothing clear here either.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       4           2       0.615    581

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts are being coy.  There's little guidance from any of the usual indicators.  There's not even much to go on from history as the last day of May is generally pretty wishy-washy.  I'd love to go out with a good call but honestly I'm just not seeing it right now so I guess all that leaves is to call Friday uncertain.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

VZ actually lost three cents on Thursday but did it with a small harami spinning top and a stochastic that's just about to form a bullish crossover.  It was also a bullish setup on a descending RTC exit so I now bless this stock as a swing trade buy.

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