Friday uncertain, bias higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain, bias higher..
• ES pivot 1452.50.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias uncertain.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

I feel a bit vindicated now, having gotten two in a row right.  The Dow had its highest close in eight sessions, breaking above resistance thanks in part to ol' Mitt's debating skills.  But there's no debating that the market moves on and we need to be on the right side of it.  So let's debate the charts and find a winner.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: :Last night I noted that the Dow had formed a symmetrical triangle and that "I'd expect the exit to be on the up side."  That turned out to work quite nicely today as the Dow popped out of the triangle with a decent 81 point run.  This green candle was enough to set up a new rising RTC.  It's not the best, with a Pearson's of only 0.892, but that should provide some guidance and right now it shows no signs of anything but continued higher.

The VIX:  I called the VIX correctly too, as it posted its biggest dump in five days, down 5.7% to bring it back below 15 and sending the indicators down to about the halfway point between overbought and oversold.  So with still no support in sight and futures down too, I'd say that one more down day is not out of the question.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are up at 1:20 AM EDT with ES higher by 0.12%.  It's not quite the move we saw last night, but up still beats down.  Today's rise in ES keeps it solidly inside its rising RTC and like a few other charts here tonight, just into overbought territory.  More significantly, we're now back to the 1457 resistance line that stymied ES when it tried, unsuccessfully, to break above it for six straight days last month.  The first assault back then was on September 13th and I'll note that today we are a lot less overbought than we were back then, implying there's more gas in the tank for a push higher this time.  Also back then, we were actually already above the upper BB; today the upper BB is at 1472, over 10 points away.  I've been hearing noises lately about SPX 1500.  I think if ES can clear (and hold) 1457, then we're going higher.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot rises again from 1443.00 to 1452.50.  With ES just a bit higher in the overnight we remain above the new number but by a lot less than before.  Still, as long as ES can stay above this level it's a positive sign.

$USDUPX daily

Dollar index: This is important, so I'll say it again - last night I noted that "the last eight times the dollar gapped up on the daily chart, it was lower the next day."  Well today we can make that nine times.  Look at this dollar chart.  Yesterday we gapped up; today we gapped down, and with a tall red candle good for a 0.76% loss.  Note also that we tumbled right out of the rising RTC (the parallel red, black, and blue lines).  That's a bearish setup and it's so deep I'm tempted to call it a trigger.  Note also the stochastic (bottom row) just completing a bearish crossover.  There's no support now until 54.40, so it looks like it's going to be 54.40 or fight.

Euro: And of course with the dollar chart performing nicely the euro is too, posting its biggest one day gain since September 14th with a tall marubozu that rocketed right out the top of the rising RTC.  I've now redefined the channel to include this.We're now finally just barely back to overbought levels in the indicators but like with the trans (see below), the stochastic is nowhere near setting up a bearish crossover so I'd have to guess there's still more upside left for the euro.  Maybe not very much after this big run-up today but there are no reversal signs on this chart.

Transportation: The trans posted another solid day, up 0.94% on a second green marubozu that just barely put the indicators into overbought territory.  But the stochastic, which is cycling nicely lately, still has a way to go before even thinking of forming a bearish crossover.  So I'd have to guess that the trans have more room to run up on Friday.


Accuracy (daily calls): 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                            average  points

April      7      9      2                    .438
May       10      7      3           2        .632  
June       8      6      6           1        .600     632
July      11      2      6           1        .857     917
August     8      6      8           1        .600     -78
September  8      6      5           0        .571     -19
October    2      2      0           0        .500     -16

     And the winner is...

Once again, tonight I'm seeing essentially all bullish signs.  The difference is that we now seem to be getting nearer to the possibility of a top, but we're not there yet.  That said, with a slew of payroll and unemployment numbers coming out tomorrow, this entire discussion is moot.  Numbers BTE, we go higher, worse than expected, we go lower, end of story.  So the all things being equal bias is higher, but with no way of knowing the news ahead of time, I'm going to have to call Friday uncertain with a positive bias.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account still remains at $180,875 after 65 trades (50 wins, 15 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/12. To some extent, my ESFT trades are mirroring my real account.  I reached my nominal goal there, of a 30% annual return, two weeks ago.  t seems like there's been a reason not to trade every single night lately and tonight there's another one.  I'm not going to stand in front of the event risk posed by Friday's economic news, so once again we simply stand aside.

CUA (Commonly Used Acronyms)

BB - Bollinger Bands
DCB - Dead Cat Bounce
MA - Moving Average
RTC - Regression Trend Channel
YTD - Year To Date

Disclaimer: (My lawyer made me do it) This blog is not trading or investment advice, account management or direction.  All trades listed here are presented only as examples of the author's personal trading style.  Investing entails significant risk and trading entails even greater risks.  Act accordingly.
 

Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher, low confidence..
• ES pivot 1443.00 .  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias uncertain.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

Well I finally got one right.  It was touch and go for a while, but the Dow eventually finished up by all of 12 points.  But I'll take it.  What's more important is how this sets us up for tomorrow so let's get right to it.

The technicals (daily)

Dow daily

The Dow: Take a look at this chart.  I've zoomed in on something interesting.  We seem to have a developing symmetrical triangle in the last three candles.  With the three preceding candle lower than that, I'd expect the exit to be on the up side.  The other point is that the black line defining the lower edge of the triangle isn't part of it at all - it's actually the central  trend line of a rising weekly RTC that started way back in June.  This rising line has been acting as support ever since then.  Today's candle was a small spinning top reflecting the indecision around the shrinking triangle.

The VIX:  Next we have the VIX which dropped again today, this time down 1.78% on a spinning top.  But the lack of nearby support and indicators only just having left overbought levels makes me think that the VIX could go lower again on Thursday.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are up at 1:17 AM EDT with ES higher by a solid 0.47% in the overnight.  That's actually a bigger gain than we had in the regular session.  It's also good enough to keep us inside the new rising RTC, create a bullish three white soldiers pattern and keep the indicators rising steadily from oversold.  Everything on this chart points to higher on Thursday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot bumps up from 1439.75 to 1443.00 even.  We were above the old number and with ES continuing to drift higher in the overnight we remain above the new level, in fact by even more - all good signs.

Dollar index: The dollar remained in its rising RTC today - just barely, gaining 0.29% on a small green gap-up marubozu.  I'll simply note that in the last eight times the dollar gapped up on the daily chart, it was lower the next day.

Euro: And the euro fell just a bit today but has completely retraced that and is now trading higher at 1.2938 in the overnight.  That's enough to break the resistance at 1.2928 and remain inside the latest rising RTC.  With indicators solidly rising, the euro looks ready for more gains tomorrow.

Transportation: I think I was wrong to suggest that the RTC had failed here.  After a bullish setup four days ago, we got a bullish trigger but on a big down candle.  The next two days went nowhere until today, pop - the trans jumped 1.17%, stopping right at resistance at 4966.  But with rising indicators and rising volume, this chart seems ready to go higher again on Thursday.


Accuracy (daily calls): 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                            average  points

April      7      9      2                    .438
May       10      7      3           2        .632  
June       8      6      6           1        .600     632
July      11      2      6           1        .857     917
August     8      6      8           1        .600     -78
September  8      6      5           0        .571     -19
October    1      2      0           0        .333     -97
     And the winner is...

The overall pattern tonight seems bullish, though it may be a bit distorted by what appears to be a debate-related pop in ES that occurred right at 10:20 PM when the show ended.  Or at least when I guess it ended.  The Night Owl did not watch this event because politics just give me a giant pain.  I take it that Romney emerged victorious though and that was good for about four ES points.  But anyway, even modulo the debate I still think it looks like we're going higher again on Thursday.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account still remains at $180,875 after 65 trades (50 wins, 15 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/12.  Tonight we stand aside once again, this time because I think the best entry point was spoiled by the debate.  Something to remember for the next debate.  Anyway, I'd have bought ES at 1447; I'm not willing to buy 1452.  But I'm also definitely not shorting anything right now.  So we'll just throw the line back into the ol' fishin' pond, lean back, relax, and wait for the next promising nibble to come along.

CUA (Commonly Used Acronyms)

BB - Bollinger Bands
DCB - Dead Cat Bounce
MA - Moving Average
RTC - Regression Trend Channel
YTD - Year To Date

Disclaimer: (My lawyer made me do it) This blog is not trading or investment advice, account management or direction.  All trades listed here are presented only as examples of the author's personal trading style.  Investing entails significant risk and trading entails even greater risks.  Act accordingly.
 

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher, low confidence..
• ES pivot 1438.75.  Breaking above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias uncertain.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

Sigh - sometimes you just can't win for losing.  Only two days into October and so far it's living up to it's reputation as a treacherous month.  Sunday night I said the market was going lower on Monday.  Instead it went higher.  Last night I said it was going higher today so of course it went lower.  I guess those are the perils of trying to call a nervous unfocused market that's been spending more time moving sideways lately than either up or down lately.  I'm going to try this one more time - they say the third time's the charm so let's see if I can get one right for a change.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: I think the news from Spain put the kaibosh on my expectations of a move higher today and in the end the 31 point decline felt more like noise than conviction.  So in the absence of strong direction, I'm going to fall back to the RTC and the indicators, both of which are bullish right now despite today's small decline.

The VIX:  At least I was right about the VIX moving lower today as it fell 1.04% on a gravestone doji.  I think there's more room to run lower again and the market has to start responding to this soon.

Market index futures: Tonight the futures are mixed at 1:33 AM EDT with ES higher by 0.16% but YM lower by 0.23% (and NQ up 0.18%).  ES has really been having trouble with 1441 lately.  The chart looks like its got some momentum building but I need to see it break that number before we get a positive day.

ES daily pivot: Amazingly, tonight the pivot remains exactly unchanged, staying right at 1438.75.  We sank below it this evening and just finished an unsuccessful attempt to climb back above, but I'd watch out for another try before morning.  Breaking above would be bullish.

Dollar index: The dollar fell out of it rising RTC.today with a 0.09% drop for a bearish setup.  I think it's ready to move lower still.

Euro: It now looks like the euro has convincingly bounced off its 200 day MA with a second daily gain in a row.Its bullish RTC has been slow in setting up but may come to fruition any day now.  The bullish stochastic crossover and rising indicators support this idea.

Transportation: Today the trans posted a small 0.14% gain on a second spinning top.  But it was enough to drive the indicators off oversold, a bullish sign.  More upside possible here on Wednesday.

Accuracy (daily calls): 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                            average  points

April      7      9      2                    .438
May       10      7      3           2        .632  
June       8      6      6           1        .600     632
July      11      2      6           1        .857     917
August     8      6      8           1        .600     -78
September  8      6      5           0        .571     -19
October    0      2      0           0        .000    -109
     And the winner is...

I'm really starting to get a bit gun-shy here after being wrong two days in a row, but I have to call 'em like I sees 'em, and I hate to say it but tonight I see bullish.  Pretty much all the factors that were in play last night are still there tonight.  If we can just keep the pain in Spain from raining on our gain then I think we have a decent shot at going higher Wednesday.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: continuing a recent dry run the account remains at $180,875 after 65 trades (50 wins, 15 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/12.  Everything I said the past two days about declining to put on a position is still at work tonight.  While I think we have a shot at going higher on Wednesday, I'm not confident enough to bet any money on it in an overnight trade, not even play money.
CUA (Commonly Used Acronyms)

BB - Bollinger Bands
DCB - Dead Cat Bounce
MA - Moving Average
RTC - Regression Trend Channel
YTD - Year To Date

Disclaimer: (My lawyer made me do it) This blog is not trading or investment advice, account management or direction.  All trades listed here are presented only as examples of the author's personal trading style.  Investing entails significant risk and trading entails even greater risks.  Act accordingly.
 

Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher, low confidence..
• ES pivot 1438.75.  Breaking above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias uncertain.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

I really hate to start a new month on a down note, but I was clearly wrong in guessing that the market would be down today.  As I said, I was going out on a limb and sometimes when you do that, you end up on the ground.  In this case, I was done in by BTE ISM numbers, something that honestly surprised me.  But trading is like baseball - you don't need to be right 100% of the time to still be considered pretty good.  So let's try to hit a home run this time.  Or at least get on base.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: I was really kicking myself this morning as I had taken out some SDS last Friday in anticipation of a lower market today.  But by the afternoon I was able to give my foot a rest as the Dow gave back half its earlier gains and my SDS was just barely in the red.  But the resulting 78 point advance took us out of the Dow's descending RTC for a bullish setup, RSI continues to rise from oversold, and the stochastic has now completed a bullish crossover.  More upside seems possible here.

The VIX:  The VIX fooled me too.  It popped out of its symmetrical triangle as I expected, but the wrong way, gaining 3.75% instead of going down.  It's also unusual for both the VIX and market to rise simultaneously.  But we now have a complete bearish stochastic crossover and a hanging man, so I'm going to guess again that the VIX goes lower on Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight the futures are barely up at 1:40 AM EDT with ES up by just 0.07%.  Today's gains in ES gave us a bullish RTC setup and the developing candle so far is enough to call a bullish trigger.  As long as ES can stay above 1424 on Tuesday, that is confirmed.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot rises from 1425.58 to 1438.75.  With ES virtually unchanged so far tonight, we're now below the new number, so that's bearish.  But with ES now at 1438, it's just barely bearish and we're well positioned to attack the pivot.

Dollar index: The $ dropped 0.14% on a spindly dragonfly doji today, closing near yesterday's highs.  Like the trans (below) we have what looks like a developing RTC failure.  We exited the rising RTC but have not moved lower.  If we redefine the RTC by extending it to account for the high on 9/26, then we're still in a rising dollar trend, bad for stocks.  OTOH, the indicators are all quite overbought right now.  So this chart is just plain confused.

Euro: The euro seems to have found support in its 200 day MA at 1.2835.  After briefly testing it today, the big E moved higher and is continuing that trend in the overnight, now up to 1.2922.  This chart is making a little more sense - at least the RTC is working here.  We've now exited the descending RTC, the indicators are moving up off oversold and it looks like the euro should continue higher on Tuesday.

Transportation: Adding to all the indecision, today the trans delivered a doji that gained just 0.15% near the bottom of yesterday's red candle.  Unless we can get something going here, this will be a rare failure of the regression trend channel.  We exited the descending RTC three days ago but have been unable to move any higher since then.  That fact alone is worrisome.  Not to sound wishy-washy, but I will note that sometimes a chart can spend a few days consolidating after exiting an RTC before taking off.

Sentiment: Once again it's time for the latest weekly TickerSense Blogger Sentiment Poll.  We continue to track the poll to see how well it performs.  Here's the updated cumulative list for this year:

Wk.# Week   % Bullish  % Bearish  NightOwl SPX  Accuracy

  1  1/3        46         21        +     1258   1/1

  2  1/9        56         37        +     1278   2/2

  3  1/17       41         33        +     1289   3/3

  4  1/23       46         32        +     1315   4/4

  5  1/30       48         31        +     1316   5/5

  6  2/6        56         30        +     1345   6/6

  7  2/13       48         31        +     1343   7/7

  8  2/21       44         32        +     1361   8/8

  9  2/27       48         24        +     1366   9/9

 10  3/5        43         26        +     1370  10/10

 11  3/12       46         32        +     1371  11/11

 12  3/19       46         29        +     1404  11/12

 13  3/26       39         29        +     1397  11/13

 14  4/2        42         21        +     1408  11/14

 15  4/9        25         46        -     1398  12/15

 16  4/16       26         48        -     1370  13/16
 17  4/23       30         48        -     1379  14/17

 18  4/30       44         32        +     1403  14/18

 19  5/7        23         50        -     1350  15/19

 20  5/14       32         44        -     1353  16/20

 21  5/21       30         52        -     1295  16/21

 22  5/29       35         42        -     1318  16/22

 23  6/4        32         48        -     1278  16/23

 24  6/11       28         40        -     1326  16/24

 25  6/18       39         26        -     1343  16/25

 26  6/25       38         46        -     1335  16/26

 27  7/2        41         40        -     1362  16/27

 28  7/9        42         38        -     1355  16/28

 29  7/16       44         32        -     1357  16/29

 30  7/23       33         42        -     1363  16/30

 31  7/30       43         22        +     1386  17/31

 32  8/6        52         28        +     1391  18/32

 33  8/13       43         21        +     1406  19/33

 34  8/20       46         31        +     1418  20/34

 35  8/27       39         29        +     1411  21/35

 36  9/4        31         38        +     1407  22/36

 37  9/10       54         29        +     1438

 38  9/17       63         22        +     1466

 39  9/24       52         30        +     1460 

 40  10/1       39         39        -     1441

Again, the SPX number is the closing price of the S&P on the Friday before each new poll comes out.  The "NightOwl" column is how I voted.  Since the poll is for 30 days out, after the first four weeks we're able to see how well we did.  This week we see that my bullish call on 9/4 was right again, the S&P now being higher than then. I'm using the column "Accuracy" to track my calls.  So now I'm 22 for 36, or 61%.  For the record, I switched my vote to bearish this week for the first time since July, based on my reading of the SPX monthly and weekly charts.

And it looks like I had company, because bullish sentiment took a big hit this week while bearish rose to leave us in a dead tie, 39-39.  This marks the third week in a row that bullish sentiment has dropped and bearish has increased.

Accuracy (daily calls): 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                            average  points

April      7      9      2                    .438
May       10      7      3           2        .632  
June       8      6      6           1        .600     632
July      11      2      6           1        .857     917
August     8      6      8           1        .600     -78
September  8      6      5           0        .571     -19
October    0      1      0           0        .000     -78

Performance:

Here are my performance stats for the first nine months of 2012.  The first two columns are for my trading account.  The next, "ESFT", is the ES Fantasy Trader.  Following that I've now added the results for my IRA.  The last is the Dow, my reference benchmark that I try to beat or at least match.

 Date    Trading, Month  Tr. YTD  ESFT YTD   IRA YTD   Dow YTD

1/31/12       7.41%        7.41%   -0.50%     6.18%     3.41%

2/29/12       3.67%       11.35%    7.88%     9.02%     6.02%

3/31/12       1.76%       13.31%   29.88%    10.05%     8.16%
4/30/12       2.35%       15.97%   41.75%    10.90%     8.17%

5/31/12      -1.92%       14.23%   26.63%     4.91%     1.45%

6/30/12       4.33%       19.17%   40.38%     2.80%     5.44%

7/31/12       2.96%       22.69%   76.00%    10.98%     6.49%

8/31/12       2.75%       25.64%   66.25%    13.16%     7.17%

9/28/12       3.59%       30.15%   80.88%    15.37%     9.98%

 

     And the winner is...

We've got a very mixed picture tonight with every chart seeming to point in 10 different directions.  When this happens I have to decide who seems to be speaking the loudest and tonight it's the Dow, the VIX and the currencies, and what they're all saying is "market higher".  So tonight the NIght Owl going to fly back up into her tree and find another limb to go out on and call Tuesday higher.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: continuing a recent dry run the account remains at $180,875 after 65 trades (50 wins, 15 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/12.  I'm now really glad I resisted the temptation to go short last night.  Unfortunately, we're in pretty much the same position tonight.  This time though I really want to go long, but I don't have enough confidence to pull the trigger.  So I'd rather sit on the sidelines until I get a bus coming along that's more clearly marked with a destination.

CUA (Commonly Used Acronyms)

BB - Bollinger Bands
DCB - Dead Cat Bounce
MA - Moving Average
RTC - Regression Trend Channel
YTD - Year To Date

Disclaimer: (My lawyer made me do it) This blog is not trading or investment advice, account management or direction.  All trades listed here are presented only as examples of the author's personal trading style.  Investing entails significant risk and trading entails even greater risks.  Act accordingly.
 

Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower, low confidence..
• ES pivot 1435.58.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias uncertain.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

OK, I'll admit I was surprised by Friday's action.  The technicals looked bullish to me.  I don't know if it was news or whatever that sent us lower, but the fact that we did close lower in the face of seemingly positive technicals is shall we say, interesting.  Now let's see where this coming week might go.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow:  Friday's 49 point drop was enough to keep us inside the descending RTC.  This is particularly significant since we opened right on the edge for a bullish setup, but it was all downhill from there.  The incipient bullish crossover of which I spoke on Thursday did not happen either.  While this chart is not in itself particularly bearish, it looks weaker in light of failed expectations than it would otherwise.

VIX daily

The VIX:  Sigh - I was wrong about the VIX too.  It did not move lower on Friday, instead gaining a solid 6% for a bullish harami.  Oddly enough, it also closed outside the rising RTC for a bearish trigger.  But look at the chart - I see a developing symmetrical triangle here.  And since the previous major trend was down, there's a good chance the break, which should be any day now, will also be down which would be good for stocks.


Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are down at 1:00 AM EDT with ES lower by 0.45%.  Friday's ES candle, which opened up promising, eventually disappointed and stayed within the descending RTC, and tonight's new candle is doing the same.  The only bright spot is that ES has developed some support around 1427 and we're real close to that right now.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot drops from 1437.67 to 1435.58.  We were below before and are still under the new pivot, and even a bit more as ES continues to drift lower in the overnight, a bearish sign.

Dollar index: On Friday the dollar gained an impressive 0.54% completely confounding my expectations that it would move lower.  This bullish engulfing pattern left the indicators at overbought-broken with no more predictive power and it canceled the incipient bearish RTC setup.  At this point, there's not reason why the dollar should not move higher again on Monday.

Euro: While the dollar moved higher on Friday, the euro moved correspondingly lower, totally retracing Thursday's gains.  And it's continuing lower on Sunday night, now at 1.2828 and has in fact just breached its 200 day MA of 1.2835.  Last Thursday I said the euro would have to go below 1.2848 on Friday to cancel a bullish reversal.  Well it very nearly did, and in fact did hit that level soon after trading began this evening.  So this chart looks likely to go lower still on Monday, which would be bad for stocks.

Transportation: I'd been kind of dissing the trans all last week basically expecting some sort of rebound after the huge drop we saw on the 20th.  Instead we simply gota week's worth of consolidation and then on Friday a close of 4893, below the week-long support line at 5190.  The indicators are now all oversold-broken and have thus lost their predictive powers.  Even though we have now exited the descending RTC for a technical bullish trigger, I don't like the looks of this chart.  It looks bearish for the market as a whole.


Accuracy (daily calls): 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                            average  points

April      7      9      2                    .438
May       10      7      3           2        .632  
June       8      6      6           1        .600     632
July      11      2      6           1        .857     917
August     8      6      8           1        .600     -78
September  8      6      5           0        .571     -19
     And the winner is...

I don't get it - I'm hearing some pretty bullish comments from people I respect like Rob Hanna and J-Trader but I guess I'm just not seeing it in the charts tonight.  The trans are looking a bit shaky and the currencies (including the Swiss franc) seem to be guiding lower  However, the VIX at least seems to stand a chance of moving lower.  On the other hand we've got some weak Asian numbers coming out tonight and our own ISM due on Monday morning and I'm guessing they're going to disappoint, so all things considered I'm going out on a limb tonight and call Monday lower.  Watch out for a break below 1427 in ES.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: with no trade again last week the account remains at $180,875 after 65 trades (50 wins, 15 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/12.  Tonight I really really want to go short but I just can't do it until I see ES break below 1427 and right now it's not cooperating.  It's close but no cigar.  And since I just can't stay up all night waiting for it I'm reluctantly going to have to wave bye-bye to this particular bus.  Nothing ventured, nothing lost.

CUA (Commonly Used Acronyms)

BB - Bollinger Bands
DCB - Dead Cat Bounce
MA - Moving Average
RTC - Regression Trend Channel
YTD - Year To Date

Disclaimer: (My lawyer made me do it) This blog is not trading or investment advice, account management or direction.  All trades listed here are presented only as examples of the author's personal trading style.  Investing entails significant risk and trading entails even greater risks.  Act accordingly.