Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2079.83.  Holding above is bullish
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a buy..

Recap

It took until noon Thursday for ES to finally make up its mind to remain above its pivot and while we did indeed close higher, that was just a bit too late for my "conditional call" which expects that to happen by mid-morning so I'm going to count that as a miss. It's still something that works often enough to be useful.  I think in this case it really reflects the still ongoing uncertainty that has yet to be wrung out of the market.  Thursday's gains. while welcome don't really constitute a breakout in my book.  So enough of that, let's see how the week's going to finish off.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow's 56 point advance on Thursday failed to top resistance at 17,978 and oddly enough caused RSI to move lower.  But the stochastic kept rising so I guess we just have to go with this choppy uptrend.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote of the VIX "it's looking lower again".  And so it was, down another 6.37% in a move that took us almost down to the lower BB at 12.87 which also happens to be a YTD support line.  Indicators are now also oversold so although it isn't a reversal candle I have to believe a move higher is coming soon.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:16 AM EDT with ES down 0.10%.  ES had a decent day Thursday but put in a hanging man that along with overbought indicators is a warning of a move lower but one which requires confirmation.  So this chart tonight is a wait & see though for now at least ES doesn't seem too interested in moving higher.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2073.58 to 2079.83. That leaves ES above the new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I said "it looks good for more upside on Thursday."  And that's just what happened as the dollar gapped up a big 1.29%.  That leaves us with rising indicators not yet overbought and no resistance in view so I've got to think we could go still higher on Friday.

Euro:  And of course that meant the euro took another leg down.  Last night I wrote "I expect a retest of last month's lows at 1.0733 in short order." and it was short indeed, with the euro ending at 1.0648 on Thursday.  With a four day losing streak going and still not yet oversold it looks like the euro's latest decline isn't over yet.

Transportation:  The trans are going gangbusters, with a powerful 0.46% marubozu on Thursday that punched right through their 200 day MA to form three white soldiers and a tight rising RTC.  With indicators now only recently off oversold, there's still a lot of room to run higher here.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      1      2       2           0       0.333    -40

     And the winner is...

Tonight we're in a quandary.  We have some reversal signs, like a VIX  at support, the Dow at resistance, and futures drifting lower.  But none of these are enough to call the market lower without confirmation.  And with the nervous action of the past week showing no signs of ending I'm just going to have to once again call Friday uncertain.  It feels more like mid-August than mid-April right now.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Last night I wasn't ready to commit to VZ and on Thursday it indeed moved lower, though on a green spinning top that got hung up on the 200 day MA.  But it also formed a bearish stochastic crossover and RSI continues falling so I'm still not on board here.

Thursday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher if ES stays above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2073.58.  Holding above is bullish
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a buy..

Recap

I think I was right to call Wednesday uncertain since we finished with just a 27 point gain in the Dow on a spindly spinning top that continues to indicate indecision in the market.  The Fed minutes didn't help much either.  Some people want  rate hike in June, some in September, and some not til 2016.  Who knows.  I have my hands full just worrying about the charts.  So let's take a peek at them right now and see what's what.

The technicals

The Dow:  After a tall inverted hammer on Tuesday we got anther reversal candle on Wednesday in the Dow.  With indicators now nearly overbought it looks like the Dow is signaling an impending move lower here.

The VIX:  For the second time in a week, the VIX has given us some divergence, this time falling  significant 5.41% on a day the rest of the market rose  That now makes four read candles out of five and three lower highs and lower lows in a row  But indicators are still not yet oversold.  I thought after yesterday's hammer we'd see a move higher but I was wise enough to mention that this required confirmation - which we did not get.  So now it's looking lower again until we see some sort of bottoming candle.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:12 AM EDT with ES down 0.06%.  On Wednesday, ES disconfirmed Tuesday's spinning top with a decent gain though it's still having trouble with resistance around 2077.  Indicators are now near overbought so it's not clear there's enough gas in the tank to make much more headway on Thursday.  And the overnight isn't showing much enthusiasm at this point either.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises a tad from 2072.17 to 2073.58.  That leaves ES above the new pivot but just barely so this indicator is now only weakly bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote of the dollar "[a bunch of technical jargon] all looks positive for Wednesday.".  And whadaya know, the dollar rose with a big green candle belying the small 0.06% gain.  This bullish engulfing pattern also gave us a bullish stochastic crossover so I'd say it looks good for more upside on Thursday.

Euro:  Last week some idiot money manager at a place whose name I will not mention, except that their initials are Wells Fargo, told me  that he couldn't predict the future and I couldn't either.  Well as far as the euro on Wednesday goes, he was half right because last night I wrote "the daily outlook for Wednesday is lower."  And just like that the euro took another leg down to close at 1.0808.  OK, it was a spindly spinning top but the new overnight is disconfirming that and moving lower once again.  Indicators are still a ways from oversold so I epect a retest of last month's lows at 1.0733 in short order.

Transportation:  After a decent 071% gain Wednesday the trans are now in a new rising RTC that stopped just short of their 200 day MA.  But with a bullish trigger on a descending RTC exit, a bullish stochastic crossover and  indicators still just barely off oversold there seems to be plenty of gas in the tank for another move higher Thursday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      1      1       2           0       0.500    -40

     And the winner is...

Once again we have some sort of wishy-washy charts that seem to be wanting to do something, only they're not quite sure what it is.  Well that seems to call for another conditional call: if ES manages to remain above its new pivot by mid-morning Thursday, we'll close higher.  If on the other hand it drops below the pivot and stays there, we close lower.

Single Stock Trader

Huh - I wasn't expecting VZ to claw its way back above its 200 day MA on Wednesday after opening below it.  But it's still a bearish exit on the rising RTC and a bearish stochastic crossover, so I'm still on getting on board at this point.

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2072.17.  Holding below is bearish
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ moving lower.

Recap

Well that was interesting.  Last night I spent the entire evening figuring out a nasty issue with my PC instead of studying the markets.  I rebooted because it had been an entire month and things were getting pretty slow  But after that I discovered I couldn't open any programs.  I'd click on an icon and nothing would happen.  It took me a long time to realize that something w happening after all, it was just really  s l o w, like 20 minutes to start a program.  Complicating matters was the fact that I couldn't do a System Restore - that was 100% fail.  Finally I figured out that a recent upgrade to ZoneAlarm was the culprit.  I uninstalled that and then life was good again.  Freakin computers!

Anyway we're back baby, so let's see if we can now do some real work instead of wasting time on that nonsense.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow put in a rare classic gravestone doji.  With indicators nearly overbought, I'd say this is a good sign of lower to come.

The VIX:  And contrariwise, on Tuesday the VIX rose a scant 0.27% on a nice hammer stopping just under its 200 day MA.  Indicators are closing in on oversold so this is a decent sign of a move higher next, though one that requires confirmation.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are completely unchanged at 12:18 AM EDT with ES, NQ, and YM all dead even.  ES did some retracing Tuesday of Monday's big gain with a bearish inverted hammer.  The indicators are all over the place, some rising, some falling, and OBV continues to be a concern, now running at negative 3M.  Overall though, this chart is too tough to call.  It happens sometimes.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2064.00 to 2072.17.  That move now leaves ES below the new pivot so this indicator is bearish.

Dollar index:  On Tuesday the dollar completed a bullish morning star with  a big 1.12% gap up.  That was enough to cause the indicators to start rising again before even getting near oversold and cause the stochastic to start curving around for a bullish crossover from a high level.  That all looks positive for Wednesday.

Euro:  Monday's doji star for the euro neatly telegraphed Tuesday's decline that brings us right back to 1.0839 and a fresh bearish stochastic crossover.  There's something of a rally going on in the overnight but I think the daily outlook for Wednesday is lower.

Transportation:  After breaking the 200 day MA two days ago on Tuesday the trans gave us some bullish divergence by gaining 0.48% on a day the rest of the market was lower with an inverted hammer following a bottoming spinning top.  With indicators rising but still not yet off oversold, this chart seems  to have more room to run.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      1      1       1           0       0.500    -40

Note: I'm not incrementing the counters for days when I wasn't able to put out a post.

     And the winner is...

Hmm, I did a bit of hand-wringing over this one but you know what I'm seeing?  A symmetrical triangle is developing in the Dow and it looks to be near completion so that would be bullish later this week.  But it's not clear there isn't one more leg down coming.  These nervous small-range doji-ish days don't give you much meat to chew on.  I could just go ahead and call it lower but that would just be guessing so officially I'm going to have to call Wednesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

OK so let's get caught up here too.  On Monday VZ put in a spinning top warning of an impending reversal.  On Tuesday we got confirmation in a big way with a giant red bearish engulfing marubozu that stopped the indicators' climb just short of overbought.  VZ is definitely not a buy on this chart.

Tuesday

Due to technical difficulties here, as in I've spent all evening trying to figure out why my PC won't boot properly, I'm afraid I won't be able to put together a post tonight.  I can't load eSignal so I have no way of looking at any charts or stats.  Sorry about that.

Our normal schedule will resume Tuesday night.  I'm sure I'll have this figured out by then.  I better have it figured out by then!

Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower.
• ES pivot 2053.75.  Holding below is bearish
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ moving higher.

Recap

With a holiday-shortened week last week and a low-volume day last Thursday, tonight the charts are more mumbling than talking to me.  I don't like calling Mondays in general because of the intervening two days off.  Friday holiday weeks just make that problem harder.  I also don't like working off three-day old charts so I'm going to omit the chart details tonight.  We'll resume the usual run-down on Monday night.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:19 AM EDT with ES down 0.69%.  Most of that decline came early on Friday's rump session just before the market closed.  There's been a bit of a drift higher in the Sunday overnight but it doesn't convince me.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2058.57 to 2053.75. We're now below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      1      0       1           0       1.000     78

     And the winner is...

Historically the Monday after Easter is weak according to the Stock Traders Almanac and I don't see anything tonight that would contradict that.  And since Mr. Market did not have the chance to express his displeasure over the latest job numbers on Friday I expect him to do so now, so I'm just going to call Monday lower.

Single Stock Trader

Last Wednesday night of VZ I wrote "this one looks ready to move higher."  And that's just what it did on Thursday, up 55 cents to punch right through its 200 day MA.  So with indicators sill moving towards overbought and the upper BB not til 50.02, I'd say there's more upside left here on Monday.