Monday, April 6, 2015

Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday lower.
  • ES pivot 2053.75.  Holding below is bearish
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ moving higher.

With a holiday-shortened week last week and a low-volume day last Thursday, tonight the charts are more mumbling than talking to me.  I don't like calling Mondays in general because of the intervening two days off.  Friday holiday weeks just make that problem harder.  I also don't like working off three-day old charts so I'm going to omit the chart details tonight.  We'll resume the usual run-down on Monday night.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:19 AM EDT with ES down 0.69%.  Most of that decline came early on Friday's rump session just before the market closed.  There's been a bit of a drift higher in the Sunday overnight but it doesn't convince me.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2058.57 to 2053.75. We're now below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      1      0       1           0       1.000     78

     And the winner is...

Historically the Monday after Easter is weak according to the Stock Traders Almanac and I don't see anything tonight that would contradict that.  And since Mr. Market did not have the chance to express his displeasure over the latest job numbers on Friday I expect him to do so now, so I'm just going to call Monday lower.

Single Stock Trader

Last Wednesday night of VZ I wrote "
this one looks ready to move higher."  And that's just what it did on Thursday, up 55 cents to punch right through its 200 day MA.  So with indicators sill moving towards overbought and the upper BB not til 50.02, I'd say there's more upside left here on Monday.

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