Friday, April 10, 2015

Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2079.83.  Holding above is bullish
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a buy..

It took until noon Thursday for ES to finally make up its mind to remain above its pivot and while we did indeed close higher, that was just a bit too late for my "conditional call" which expects that to happen by mid-morning so I'm going to count that as a miss. It's still something that works often enough to be useful.  I think in this case it really reflects the still ongoing uncertainty that has yet to be wrung out of the market.  Thursday's gains. while welcome don't really constitute a breakout in my book.  So enough of that, let's see how the week's going to finish off.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow's 56 point advance on Thursday failed to top resistance at 17,978 and oddly enough caused RSI to move lower.  But the stochastic kept rising so I guess we just have to go with this choppy uptrend.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote of the VIX "it's looking lower again".  And so it was, down another 6.37% in a move that took us almost down to the lower BB at 12.87 which also happens to be a YTD support line.  Indicators are now also oversold so although it isn't a reversal candle I have to believe a move higher is coming soon.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:16 AM EDT with ES down 0.10%.  ES had a decent day Thursday but put in a hanging man that along with overbought indicators is a warning of a move lower but one which requires confirmation.  So this chart tonight is a wait & see though for now at least ES doesn't seem too interested in moving higher.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2073.58 to 2079.83. That leaves ES above the new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I said "it looks good for more upside on Thursday."  And that's just what happened as the dollar gapped up a big 1.29%.  That leaves us with rising indicators not yet overbought and no resistance in view so I've got to think we could go still higher on Friday.

Euro:  And of course that meant the euro took another leg down.  Last night I wrote "I expect a retest of last month's lows at 1.0733 in short order." and it was short indeed, with the euro ending at 1.0648 on Thursday.  With a four day losing streak going and still not yet oversold it looks like the euro's latest decline isn't over yet.

Transportation:  The trans are going gangbusters, with a powerful 0.46% marubozu on Thursday that punched right through their 200 day MA to form three white soldiers and a tight rising RTC.  With indicators now only recently off oversold, there's still a lot of room to run higher here.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      1      2       2           0       0.333    -40

     And the winner is...

Tonight we're in a quandary.  We have some reversal signs, like a VIX  at support, the Dow at resistance, and futures drifting lower.  But none of these are enough to call the market lower without confirmation.  And with the nervous action of the past week showing no signs of ending I'm just going to have to once again call Friday uncertain.  It feels more like mid-August than mid-April right now.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Last night I wasn't ready to commit to VZ and on Thursday it indeed moved lower, though on a green spinning top that got hung up on the 200 day MA.  But it also formed a bearish stochastic crossover and RSI continues falling so I'm still not on board here.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Due to some people who just won't honor my request not to post spam on my blog, I have had to re-enable comment moderation. Comments may take up to 24 hour to appear, depending on when they're made. Sorry about that.