Thursday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2049.08.  Holding above is bullish
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ is a swing buy.

Recap

Ha!  April couldn't Fool the Night Owl as the market defied history and moved lower on Wednesday just like I said it would last night. Now let us atone for that little bit of hubris by attempting to figure out whither Thursday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On April Fools the Dow dug itself a deep hole early on and then spent the rest of the day trying to climb back out but didn't quite make it.  The result was a nice hammer that with oversold indicators suggests a move higher on Thursday.

The VIX:  In a highly unusual move, on Wednesday the VIX not only fell on a day the rest of the market did too but it put in a giant inverted hammer propped up by its 200 day MA.  With the momentum downward and overbought indicators, I'd say the next move here is lower again.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:19 AM EDT with ES down 0.11%.  ES gapped down on Wednesday but put in a tomahawk ( my name for a hammer that has a bit of an upper shadow sticking out).  Indicators remain oversold and support at 2049 held nicely so there is a possible reversal higher here though the overnight action doesn't really support that idea.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot fives from 2064.58 to 2049.08. Thanks entirely to the size of that drop, ES is now back above the new pivot so this indicator, for what it's worth, now turns bullish.

Dollar index:  We've been pondering evening stars for the dollar for two nights now and on Wednesday got a result with the dollar losing 0.19% on a gap-down spinning top  to complete a bearish evening star.  With indicators overbought and a stochastic about to form a bearish crossover I'd say the dollar is looking lower on Thursday.

Euro:  The euro managed a gain on Wednesday but it was a stubby green spinning top at the lower end of Tuesday's big plunge so the latest downtrend remains intact.  Calling the euro higher remains risky business, one I'm not undertaking right now.

Transportation:  And finally the trans were hammered again on Wednesday.  They made a test (successful) of the 200 day MA to end with a 0.79% loss and a fat hammer.  With oversold indicators this is a half-decent reversal sign, though one that requires confirmation.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183  March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      1      0       0           0       1.000     78

     And the winner is...

Meh - the charts seem a bit jittery to me tonight and I'm not getting a good read on them.  We have a number of reversal signs but they all require confirmation.  So in the absence of a definitive read one way or the other I guess all that leaves  is for me to call Thursday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

VZ redeemed itself on April 1st with a nice bullish piercing pattern.  So although we now have three descending candles, this one looks ready to move higher.

Wednesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower.
• ES pivot 2064.58.  Holding below is bearish
• Rest of week bias higher technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ now uncertain.

Recap

Though my official call was uncertain I did last night express my bias to the downside and that's where the Dow went to close out the quarter, off 200 points.  We now look ahead to April, no fooling.

The technicals

The Dow:  The primary effect of Tuesday's downturn was to stunt what looked like the beginning of another cycle up as RSI turned lower and the stochastic's bullish crossover flattened out.  And the candle is a bearish harami so Wednesday's not looking all that promising right now.

The VIX:  I was wrong about the VIX last night.  The hammer prevailed and the VIX moved higher Tuesday despite being overbought, on a bullish setup from a descending RTC exit punching back up through its 200 day MA   That now becomes support, though the candle was a spinning top indicating a lack of conviction here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:27 AM EDT with ES down 0.79%.  On Tuesday ES was unable to capitalize on Monday's gains and in fact put in a bearish harami.  And the decline in the overnight has just canceled Monday's bullish stochastic crossover, turning it into a bearish one from a low level.  These are rare events and generally not good.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2068.17  to 2064.58.  That now puts ES below the new pivot and so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  It was good I waited for confirmation of Monday's suspected evening star since it didn't come.  Instead the dollar gapped up again and put in yet another star leaving us right back where we were, once again needing confirmation before making any calls.  One thing's clear - we're now in a new rising RTC.

Euro:  And similarly the euro remains in a descending RTC, closing back down to 1.0754 on Tuesday.  We didn't reach parity in March but that's still on the table for sometime this year.

Transportation:  The trans mirrored the Dow on Tuesday so they're not looking so hot either right now.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976

     And the winner is...

April is generally bullish and the first day of April is traditionally quite bullish.  But right now that's about the only thing it's got going for it.  The futures are looking fairly ugly in the overnight, no doubt on late news that the Iran nuke talks are on the rocks, and the rest of the charts are indecisive at best.  So despite it being the first,  I'm going to have to call Wednesday lower.  Perhaps I will be Fooled.

Single Stock Trader

I was a bit surprised to see VZ drop right back through its 200 day MA on Tuesday.  Chalk it up to end-of-quarter shenanigans I guess.  It does call into question whether VZ has the chops to put in a further advance so I'm going to hold off on this one for now.

Tuesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2068.17.  Holding above is bullish
• Rest of week bias higher technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ to continue higher.

Recap

Yup, Monday was one of those days where the technicals asserted themselves in a big way.  Everything looked bullish last night and pow zoom, up we went right out of the gate 264 Dow points just like that.  Now let's see if Tuesday will be that easy (I kinda doubt it).

The technicals

The Dow:  If you missed the first five minutes of Monday morning, you also missed most of the day's gains, it was over that fast.  The resulting tall green marubozu shot out of the descending RTC for a bullish setup and completed a bullish stochastic crossover while sending all the indicators higher, though still just barely oversold.  This all looks continued bullish.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote of the VIX, "it looks like it could go lower again on Monday".  And indeed it fell another 3.72% to gap right down through its 200 day MA and form a new bearish stochastic crossover.  The candle though is a hammer but the overall momentum suggests lower to come.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:15 AM EDT with ES down 0.14%.  ES had a great day Monday, blasting out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup and neatly completing a bullish stochastic crossover.  My only worry here is the tendency of ES to retrace after big one day gains, and the overnight sag isn't helping matters any.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2050.42 to 2068.17. We remain above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish, though not quite so much as before

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote "I have to once again think the dollar goes higher on Monday" and it was good thinking because the dollar took an Olympic high jump-sized gap up 0.78% in a move that nicely completed its bullish stochastic crossover and provided a bullish trigger on the descending RTC exit.  The month-long downtrend is now officially over.  Only caveat here is that the pattern is now 2/3 of an evening star.  So we need to wait for confirmation Tuesday to see if that is confirmed or not.

Euro:  And last night I also wrote "[I] think the euro's going lower on Monday".  And hey presto, down it went, to close at 1.0834, a level not seen in a whole week.  With the indicators all falling towards oversold, a bearish stochastic is full effect and a bearish trigger on a rising RTC exit this chart looks continued lower.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote "this chart looks ready to move higher on Monday" and the trans on Monday were a virtual carbon copy of the Dow so everything I wrot3e there applies here too.  It all looks good.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       4           4       0.647    976

     And the winner is...

Tonight the overall look of the charts remains bullish but I am concerned that after such a big one day gain the market may want to take a break.  Tuesday is also the end of the month and the quarter and that could lead to assorted profit-taking and/or rebalancing.  Also the last day of March is historically weak.  So with these two counter-currents operating tonight, I'm afraid I'm going to have to settle for officially calling Tuesday uncertain, though I personally believe that the bias is lower

Single Stock Trader

Last night of VZ I wrote "it's now a buy for the adventurous.". And it was an excellent adventure as VZ gained 1.15% to pop back up through its 200 day MA and complete a bullish stochastic crossover.  As indicators are still just barely oversold and OBV continues to rise, I'd say there's more upside evaluable here on Tuesday.

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher.
• ES pivot 2050.42.  Holding above is bullish
• Rest of week bias higher technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ due to move higher.

Recap

Looks like everyone was worn out after a few exciting days last week as the Dow put in a relatively sedate session Friday with a range of only double digits for a change.  Made for some interesting patterns to.  And it should be an interesting week coming up as we end the quarter and being a new month so let's get right to it on this Sunday night.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow spent much of Friday trading in a tiny range propped up by its daily pivot.  The net result was a bullish piercing line which left the indicators oversold, curved the stochastic around in preparation for a bullish crossover, and left us near the edge of the descending RTC.  With another reversal candle last Thursday that bounced off the lower BB, this chart looks ready to move higher Monday.

The VIX:  Last Thursday I also pointed to a reversal sign in the VIX and that came to be with a 4.62% decline on Friday to complete a bearish evening star.  The VIX is now nearly overbought having bounced off its upper BB and propped up only by its 200 day MA.  With indicators much closer to overbought than oversold, it looks like it could go lower again on Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:16 AM EDT with ES up  0.38%  On Friday ES put in a green spinning top harami with oversold indicators and a stochastic about to make q bullish crossover.  The overnight is now outside the descending RTC for a bullish setup but oddly is also moving lower.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2046.83 to 2050.42.  That keeps ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Well the dollar folled me.  Last Thursday night I thought it was looking higher on Friday.  Instead it dropped 0.17%, perhaps in a simple mean reversion after Thursday's big gain.  In any case we remain oversold and have just exited a descending RTC for a bullish setup so I have to once again think the dollar goes higher on Monday.

Euro:  Similarly my call for a lower euro didn't work either on Friday but the resulting spinning top at overbought levels hanging right on the edge of the rising RTC makes me think the euro's going lower on Monday.  That theory is supported by the overnight action, headed non-trivially lower.

Transportation:  On Friday the trans put in a bullish piercing pattern good for a 0.24% gain that snapped a four day losing streak and formed a new bullish stochastic crossover.  After bouncing off their 200 day MA last Thursday and with now oversold indicators this chart looks ready to move higher on Monday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      6      6       4           4       0.625    711

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts are generally bullish so the clear technical call is for Monday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Last Thursday night I said VZ might be nearing a reversal and that's now looking more likely with a green spinning top harami on Friday that left the indicators oversold, brought the stochastic down into the region form whence bullish crossovers come and send OBV higher for the first time in a week.  We just need a bullish RTC exit to sound the all clear.  In the meantime, I'd say it's now a buy for the adventurous.