Friday, December 9, 2016

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2243.92.  Holding above is bullish...
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

I'll admit I was somewhat skeptical that the market could advance much further after such a big pop on Wednesday but on Thursday it managed exactly that, though with a more muted gain of 65 for the Dow.  The Dow rode its upper BB higher for the second day in a row and continues to be highly overbought.  This is what they mean when they say not to fight the tape.

We head off to the charts now to figure out what Friday may hold as we wrap up the first full week of December.  So far it's sure looking like Santa is already here, distributing all sorts of green presents to all the good little traders.

The technicals

The VIX:  For the second day in a row we got a VIX that rose along with the rest of the market.  I discounted this last night but I don't know how much longer this can go on without a market dip.  The candle was a tall spinning top though so there's at least a suggestion the next move could be lower.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are barely changed at 12:21 AM EST with ES exactly flat and YM up just 0.08%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2228.25 to 2243.92. And once again ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393

July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October   10      3       4           1       0.786     314
November   4      4       5           3       0.636     463
December   2      1       3           0       0.667      41

     And the winner is...

There's lots of spinning tops on the charts tonight, plus a hanging man on the trans.  And if you believe that oil is back to an inverse correlation with the market (it fell on Wednesday when the rest of the market rose), then Thursday's gain would be a negative sign.  Meanwhile the futures are playing it close to the vest tonight with little change.  I think we could see some profit taking on Friday and that might lead to a doji day.  Either way, there's too much uncertainty here to make a definitive call so I'm afraid it just has to be Friday uncertain.

That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.