Monday, December 5, 2016

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday lower.
  • ES pivot 2191.17.  Holding below is bearish...
  • Rest of week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

On Friday we had another one of these split market days with the Dow falling 22 points while the SPX rose 0.87 points.  That's of course more prone to happen when we get a doji day.  Anyway, my call is for the Dow and I called it lower, so that's one in the win column.  We now begin the first full week of December.  It's not too soon to be watching for signs of whether Santa is going to show up.

The technicals
VIX, one minute bars

The VIX:  After two days of gains, on Friday the VIX put in a tall doji - if the chart is to be believed.  There are two strange outlier one minute bars at 8:30 and 8:31 AM Friday all the way down to 12.39.  What the heck was that about?  But being quite overbought lately anyway and with a stochastic curving around for a bearish crossover, it looks like the VIX is getting ready to move lower soon.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:38 AM EST with ES down 0.30%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2193.67 to 2191.17. ES remains below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393

July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October   10      3       4           1       0.786     314
November   4      4       5           3       0.636     463
December   1      0       1           0       1.000      22

     And the winner is...

Tonight ES continues a three day losing streak.  The Dow has now put in three days of lower highs and the SPX is already in a new downtrend.  It seems as if the market is already pricing in a Fed rate hike next week (and I'm certain it's coming).  In any case, the tide seems to be ebbing with the futures running in the red tonight so I'm just going to call Monday lower.  We may still see a Santa Claus rally this month, I just don't think it's going to be starting on Monday.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Due to some people who just won't honor my request not to post spam on my blog, I have had to re-enable comment moderation. Comments may take up to 24 hour to appear, depending on when they're made. Sorry about that.