Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Tuesday uncertain.
- ES pivot 2197.67. Holding above is bullish...
- Rest of week bias lower technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias higher.
- YM futures trader: no trade tonight.
Well I'll be. Apparently, not even the prospect of the imminent demise of the Italian banking system was enough to keep the Dow from rising even further into record territory on Monday, taking my call for a lower close with it. Mama mia!
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| VIX daily |
The technicals
The VIX: The VIX took a big 14% drop on Monday on a tall red marubozu breaking the 13 handle and stopping right at support at 12.15. I'll admit I sure didn't see this one coming. But being still overbought with a fresh bearish stochastic crossover and the lower BB not til 10.32, it would appear that there's still plenty of room to run lower here.
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly lower at 12:18 AM EST with ES down 0.07%.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2191.17 to 2197.67. ES is now back above its new pivot so this indicator is bullish.
Accuracy:
average points
January 9 5 5 0 0.643 1433
February 9 3 5 3 0.800 1133
March 8 6 6 1 0.600 222
April 6 4 8 2 0.667 416
May 9 3 4 4 0.813 756
June 8 5 7 1 0.643 1393
July 5 6 6 2 0.539 -304
August 1 3 8 0 0.250 120
September 4 5 6 0 0.444 -59
October 10 3 4 1 0.786 314
October 10 3 4 1 0.786 314
November 4 4 5 3 0.636 463
December 1 1 1 0 0.500 -24
And the winner is...
On Monday we got a big gap-up spinning top form the Dow and a gap-up inverted hammer from the SPX, both reversal signs. And the admittedly new ES candle is forming as a dark cloud cover. But the VIX doesn't seem to be on board for a reversal right now. This is just the sort of series of conflicting signals I don't like so I'm going to take a pass tonight and call Tuesday uncertain.
YM Futures Trader
No trade tonight.
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