[The following post was originally written Wednesday night. However, Blogspot went down before I could post it. Therefore it did not appear until yesterday. Then Blogspot went down again last night, not only taking this post with it but preventing me entirely from writing my usual late night forecast. In this post "today" refers to Wednesady, ie. two days ago.
Since there's little point in making a forecast for a session that's already half over, I'll just (try) to republish Wednesday's post here and hope it sticks this time. One more of these and I'll be looking for a new host for the Night Owl.]
I readily confess I found today's action baffling. I guess this shows the limits of technical analysis. By all rights, last night the charts looked ready to move higher today. Instead, we got slammed, Dow down 130. I blew this one badly. And I'm still having trouble figuring out why. According to the news today, it was the fault of either the dollar, the euro, silver margins, oil speculators, the Greek debt, Chinese inflation, the Mississippi floods, Raj Rajaratnam, J.C. "zut alors" Trichet, head of the ECB, or the phase of the moon. Take your pick.
Either way, I found it untradeable. My big fear right now is that we're entering a period something like we say back in the beginning of March, where we got jerked around up and down for eight straight sessions for no real good reason before finally taking a dive all the way down to 11,555 on March 16th. Even the pattern looks the same: a three day decline followed by what looked to be the start of another uptrend, only to see it cut off well short of where it seemed to be heading.
Given this, I'm not making any market calls tonight. I'm just not getting any good guidance from my charts tonight. It's one of those times where the best course is to stand aside until the dust settles. And I'm also not sounding the all clear on SLV yet either.
Imagining the next bear market
12 hours ago