Friday

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher.
• ES pivot 2049.17.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

As expected the Dow took off nicely Thursday morning with a triple digit pop.  But as in recent days, it spent the rest of the day retracing.  Is Mr. Market ever going to find the courage of his convictions?  Friday's his last chance this week to prove it.  Let's see what the charts think about it as we continue to thread our way through the Greeks, the Puerto Ricans, the Chinese, the NYSE "glitches", and who knows what else.

The technicals

The Dow:  As we've seen so often recently, all the action happened in the first three minutes of trading and then the Dow spent the rest of the day retracing.  The net result was the mother of all gravestone dojis.  We did manage to finish just off the lower BB and the indicators are still oversold but I can't really call the Dow higher Friday with this sort of indeterminacy.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "I am very hesitant to call the VIX lower just yet".  Good thing too because on Thursday the VIX gained another 1.58% on an unusual side-by-side matching lines pattern.  And it revisited its upper BB for the fourth time in four days.  I mentioned this last night - the more the VIX hangs around its upper BB, the more it wants to stay there.  So in the absence of a reversal candle this one can't be called lower just yet.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:48 AM EDT with ES up a significant 1.05%.  Last night I wrote that "[o]n Wednesday ES plunged right back to its 200 day MA making the third day in a row that's served as support".  Well you can make it four now as ES put in a tall tall gravestone doji perched right on that MA once again.  But the new overnight is up significantly, on news that Alexis Tsipras went out and bought himself a tie or something like that.  So this one could go higher on Friday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot barely dips from 2049.58 to 2049.17. That leaves ES still above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  The dollar looked lower last night but in the end it wasn't, up 0.33% Thursday.  But with its recent herky jerky action, all news-driven no doubt, there's no telling where it's going Friday.

Euro:  On Thursday the euro gave up most of Wednesday's gains to close at 1.1022.  But then it's right back up to 1.1076 in the overnight as it continues a slow see-saw higher.  We're near resistance around 1.1087 and right now it looks like that level may be tested on Friday.

Transportation:  For the first time in a while the trans outperformed the Dow, up 0.63% on a bullish inverted hammer that kept the indicators moving higher, now just off oversold.  So this looks bullish for Friday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       5      0       0           0       1.000    572

     And the winner is...

There aren't a lot of particularly bullish signs on the charts tonight with the major exception of the futures, with ES up a whopping 1% as I write.  So just like last night, we're not going to fight it but simply call Friday higher.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

VZ has been all over the map lately with four doji stars in a row before Thursday and then a big red marubozu. to close on its lower BB.  This action is definitely not my preferred swing trade setup so we just let it pass.  Odds are though that it will go higher on Friday as the entire market is looking up at this point.

Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday  higher.
• ES pivot 2049.58.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Whoo-ee!  What a month, and we're barely past the first week.  First it was the Greeks.  Then the Puerto Ricans.  Then the Chinese market imploded, and on Wednesday the NYSE suddenly went on vacation for half the day  If it's not one thing it's another.  Guess it was a good idea to call Wednesday lower.  Let's see what sense the charts can make of all this turmoil for Thursday.

And Blogspot's spell checker must be hosted by the NYSE becasue this is the second night in a row that I click on it and nothing happens.  So sorry in advance for any typos.

The technicals

The Dow:  Technically, Wednesday's tall red marubozu confirmed Tuesday's tall hanging man as the Dowf ell right back through its 200 day MA, its seventh cross in seven days.  We're now right back to the lower BB and indicators are back to oversold.  But we also just got a bearish stochastic crossover from a low level and those are usually good for a day or two of lower prices.

The VIX:  The VIX, which was looking lower last night instead took off for a 22% pop, propeled largely by the NYSE debacle, and closing above its upper BB just shy of 20 for its higher close since January 30th.  Normally once the VIX hits its upper BB, it goes lower.  But when it revisits it repeatedly, it starts to want to stick around, like the spikes we had last October and December.  And with a fresh bullish stochastic crossover from a high level, I am very hesitant to call the VIX lower just yet.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:37 AM EDT with ES up  a significant 0.59%.  On Wednesday ES plunged right back to its 200 day MA making the third day in a row that's served as support.  It also formed bearish stochastic crossover from a lwo level which is a bad sign.  But the overnight se3ems to be trying to stage a rally.  So the worst I can say of this chart is that further downside seems to be limited.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2062.25 to 2049.58.  But this time that was enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator now turns back to bullish.

Dollar index:  The dollar took a beating on Wednesday, gapping down as sharply as it gapped up on Tuesday.  With a bearish stochastic crossover and indicators still voerbought this looks like a recipe for lower again Thursday.

Euro:  On Wednesday the euro made its sixth direction reversal in a row by retracing all of Tuesday's losses and then some to close at 1.1071.  That sent the indocators off oversold and further gains in the overnight seem to be pointing to a higher close on Thursday.

Transportation:  The trans underperformed the Dow on Wednesday turning what looked like an incipient rally into a rout with a bearish stochastic crossover from a low level and a tall red marubozu that took them right back to their lower BB.  So this chart suddenly looks bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       4      0       0           0       1.000    539

     And the winner is...

Wednesday's decline may have been overdone and the futures are certainly guiding higher in the overnight, thanks possibly to some Chinese central bank meddling in their stock market - who knows, I can't keep track of all this anymore.  In any case, when the futures are up nearly 0.6% in the wee hours of the morning, it's good to pay attention.  So I'm going to call Thursday higher despite some bearish technicals.

Single Stock Trader

The bullish tri-star in VZ did not pan out on Wednesday as VZ was dragged down with the rest of the market on the Chinese market news and the unscheduled NYSE holiday.  It left us with a gap-down doji star sitting on its lower BB but with a bearish stochastic crossover so I'm going to just wait and see what it does Thursday morning.

Wednesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower.
• ES pivot 2062.25.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ now a swing trade hold.

Recap

When I woke up this morning at the crack of 11 AM and looked at the market I wondered how I could have been so badly wrong, calling the Dow higher on Tuesday when it was down nearly 200 points.  But by the time the bell rang I had been vindicated as the Dow puled off the greatest comeback since Lazarus to finish up 93.  It was an interesting deveopment so let's look at the implciations for Wednesday.

[Stupid Blogspot's spell checker seems to be on strike once again so I apologize for any typos in this post].

The technicals

The Dow:  Last night I wrote that "this chart now looks bullish" and in the end it was as the Dow crossed its 200 day MA yet again to finish with a giant hammer - or is it hanging man?  With this herky-jerky Greek-fueled back and forth lately it's kind of hard to tell.  It does though look like the payoff on Monday's bullish RTC trigger and it left the indicators still just barely off oversold.  So with the 200 MA now as support I'm kinda leaning to this as still looking bullish.

The VIX:  And I caught this one too when I wrote "this chart looks lower Tuesday" as the VIX dropped over 5% on a tall inverted hammer after touching its upper BB, the traditional third rail of the VIX.  That still leaves the indicators just barely overbought and a bearish stochastic crossover in place.  So I'd hazard that the VIX sitll has more downside left here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are significantly lower  at 12:23 AM EDT with ES down 0.75 %.  After bouncing off its 200 day MA  on Monday ES conducted a successful retest Tuesday to finsih with a tall tall hanging man.  The new overnight is looking pretty grim and confirming that candle.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2056.42 to 2062.25.  And that was enough to put ES back below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  On Tuesday the dollar took  big 0.62% gap-up pop to trade entirely above its upper BB.  With indicators now overbought, a stochastic that has just formed a bearish crossover, and a big yawning gap below begging filling, this one looks lower Wednesday.  But the new overnight is up sharply so who knows where this is going.

Euro:  And on Tuesday the euro continued its current two week-plus downtrend with a bearish engulfing candle to close at 1.0986 as it dribbles down its lower BB.

Transportation:  On Tuesday the trans outperformed the Dow with a big 1.24% gain to close outside their descending RTC for a bullish trigger with indicators still just oversold and a completed bullish stochastic crossover.  So this chart technically looks quite good.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       3      0       0           0       1.000    278

     And the winner is...

Hmm, well technically the charts are looking pretty bullish tonght.  Just one slight problem - China's stock market is cratering in the overnight and judging by the futures, that is sure to spill over into our markets on Wednesday.  So even though I'm a technician I'm just going to go with the news and call Wednesday lower.  There's no point fighting this tape, that's for sure.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I blessed VZ as a swing buy and it delivered on Tuesday though with a spindly long-legged doji.  That makes a very rare bullish tri-star pattern (in fact this is the first one I've ever seen) so I'll just have to say hang in there.

Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher.
• ES pivot 2056.42.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ now a swing trade buy.

Recap

After falling over the edge out the gate Monday morning, the Dow quickly recovered the entire loss, only to retrace most of it before finally ending just 47 points lower as Mr. Market displayed more common sense than he usually does in the face of "major crises".  So that's that.  Let's see, if it's even possible technically with the barrage of contradictory and confusing comments coming from Europe lately, where Tuesday might be headed.

The technicals

The Dow:  After trading above its 200 day MA on Thursday, the Dow plunged back below it on Monday, only to pop right back up again and finally settle just a few points below it with the mother of all hammers.  Though we now have two red days in a row they both traded outside the last descending RTC and that's a bullish trigger.  The indicators remain oversold and the stochastic has completed a bullish crossover.  So overall I'd have to say this chart now looks bullish.

The VIX:  After finding support right on its 200 day MA last Thursday the VIX continued higher on Monday.  But after hitting the rarefied air around 19 (where it petered out twice before in the last 5 days) it came right back down to end with a tall dark cloud cover that bounced off its upper BB.  Indicators remain overbought and we have a completed bearish stochastic crossover so this chart looks lower Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:54 AM EDT with ES up  0.31%.  ES opened Monday way down, in fact below its lower BB and right down to its 200 day MA.  But then it was up, up and away from there for a nearly 30 point gain.  Even at that, the indicators are still just barely oversold and the stochastic has just completed a bullish stochastic crossover.  So with the overnight confirming that, this one looks higher for Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot plummets from 2070.00 to 2056.42. That now leaves ES way above its new pivot so this indicator is quite bullish.

Dollar index:  The dollar took a 0.19% bounce on Monday, no doubt as all the Greeks sought refuge for their cash.  But that drove it to its upper BB and left the indicators just off overbought with a red hanging man.  This is a pretty good reversal sign so I'd not be surprised to see the buck go lower on Tuesday.

Euro:  I'm a bit surprised that the euro managed to actually post a gain on Monday given all the Greek drama going on.  In the overnight it's virtually unchanged but given all the uncertainty around Europe right now, I'm not touching this one with a ten foot Grecian urn.

Transportation:  The trans have been in a ragged descending trend since the middle of March, one that accelerated after giving up the 200 day MA in mid-May.  The trend is even more pronounced on the monthly chart where you can clearly see the peak in November 2014.  But on a monthly basis we are now oversold and that doesn't happen often.  The last time was September 2011 and month later the trans took off on a four month rally.  In daily terms we've ricocheted off the lower BB with oversold indicators and a stochastic lying on the floor but gearing up for a bullish crossover.  So with some clear support established at 8080, I'd have to guess the next move is higher.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       2      0       0           0       1.000    185


     And the winner is...

What a difference a day makes.  Tonight the charts are pretty much in agreement with some good bullish technical signs so I'll just go ahead and call Tuesday higher.  With the usual caveat about the Greeks of course.

Single Stock Trader

VZ ultimately lost only a few pennies Monday with a  tall doji star.  With rising indicators and a completed bullish stochastic crossover, this one might go higher Tuesday.  There seems to be more upside potential than downside risk at the moment, modulo the Greeks.

Those freakin' Greeks

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower....
• ES pivot 2067.33.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Those freakin' Greeks!  As I write on Sunday evening it is apparent that Greece has evidently decided to sow the wind by voting "no" on their crazy referendum.  And just as surely they will reap the whirlwind.  The Grexit is in my view now inevitable.  I  am absolutely astounded at this naked display of unabashed hubris.  The Greeks are crowing about their "dignity" but seem to have forgotten that when you're bankrupt, the first thing you forfeit is your dignity.  Hey, I'll have to try that next year when my property taxes are due.  I'll just tell the town I can't pay but I have my dignity so they have a responsibility to share my pain.  Let's see how far that gets me.  Perhaps Angela Merkel can loan Mr. Tsipras a few euros so he can buy himself a tie.

Apparently the Greeks would rather go down with their ship and take the rest of the world with them.  And judging by the futures this evening, that's exactly what's going to happen on Monday.  So there's no point  to even bother doing individual charts tonight as Monday's close is already a forgone conclusion.  This Greek drama is getting rather tiresome.  Note to Greece: would you please just go away!

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dips  from 2070.00 to 2067.33.  And that still leaves us well below the new pivot so this indicator is nwo bearish - very bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552 July       1      0       0           0       1.000    138

     And the winner is...

Monday lower, obviously.  But Monday evening should be interesting as there may be some buying opportunities developing later this week.

Single Stock Trader

VZ had a small gain last Thursday but it's virtually guaranteed to get swept up in Monday's slaughter so this isn't the time to be buying it.