Friday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday lower, low confidence.
• ES pivot 1941.50.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

Well I sure wasn't expecting a 217 point pop in the Dow on Thursday (having called it lower).  I think Mr. Market is just in one of his manic phases where the technicals don't count for much.

The technicals

The Dow: Defying all reason, popped right back above its 200 day MA keeping the indicators rising and still not overbought.  And back into the rising RTC.  So now looks positive.

The VIX:  So much for bullish engulfing.  All we know is the VIX has good support at 16.07.  Stochastic curving around for a bullish crossover and the trade was outside the descending RTC for a bullish trigger, so technically this one's higher.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are significantly lower at 12:16 AM EDT with ES down 0.42%.  ES had a good day Thursday but the new overnight is now falling out of the rising RTC for a bearish setup.  That has also given us a completed bearish stochastic crossover.  With highly overbought indicators, this one looks lower.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot jumps from 1929.67 to 1941.50.  That now puts us back below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  A new rising RTC here but near resistance.  Too tough to call.

Euro: Small doji star Thursday and oversold indicators warn of a short-term bottom here.

Transportation:  A big 2.10% pop on Thursday belies overbought indicators and a stochastic very close to a bearish crossover.  Resistance strong at 8488.  My guess is lower Friday.

Accuracy:

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    5      10      6           0       0.333     64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
May        6       7      6           0       0.462    -67
June       8      10      3           2       0.500    132 July       6       4      4           3       0.692    639 August     8       7      2           2       0.588     81 September  6       6      5           2       0.571    376 October    5       6      3           1       0.500     76

     And the winner is...

If I had any sense I'd just call Friday uncertain, but instead I'll call Friday lower.  There are just too many bearish technical signs on the charts now to do anything else.  That's all, she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $121,625 after nine trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 7 for 9 total, 5 for 5 long, 2 for 3 short, and one push.  Tonight we stand aside.

Thursday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower, low confidence.
• ES pivot 1929.67.  Holding below is bearish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

Well I am certainly glad I called Wednesday as uncertain because of the odd way things turned out.  While it is certainly tragic for anyone to get shot on the job in Canada, and I don't mean to sound cold about it, but it doesn't seem to warrant a nearly full percent drop in the Dow.  Or blame it on AT&T earnings but Mr. Market sure seems to be be a nervous Nellie.  Will he find his Valium stash in time for Thursday?  Let's check it out, as they say down at the public library.

The technicals

The Dow: It wasn't quite the doji I envisioned, but the Dow was indeed unable to press forward on Wednesday and after breaking above its 200 day MA Tuesday it just folded with a big bearish dark cloud cover to collapse right back below it.  That was also good for a rising RTC bearish setup. even though we're still not quite yet overbought.  Either way, this one no longer looks bullish..

The VIX:  It didn' take much to spook Mr. Market with the VIX jumping 11.13% Tuesday just as it seemed ready to visit its 200 day MA.  The resulting bullish engulfing candle now makes this chart look bullish.  Oh and a bullish exit of a descending RTC too..

Market index futures: Tonight the futures are mixed  at 12:20 AM EDT with ES up 0.04% but NQ down 0.03%. ES put in a dark cloud coverish affair on Wednesday with overbought indicators and its stochastic is now curving around preparing for a bearish crossover.  Wednesday felt like it took the wind out of ES's sails though we do remain in a rising RTC for now at least.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 1921.17 to 1929.67.  We've now crossed under the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  Big gap-up breakout here on Wednesday right up to resistance.  But with indicators not yet overbought, more upside possible.

Euro: Last night I wrote that the euro  "looks lower Wednesday" and so it was, falling back to 1.2648, in a month-long congestion zone.  But with indicators still not yet oversold and no reversal candle, more lower here still possible.

Transportation: Tuesday's resistance was the key to Wednesday's trans as they sank over 2%.  Also hit oversold, also exited the rising RTC for a bearish setup, also the stochastic is now near s bearish crossover, all of which makes this chart now suddenly look negative.

Accuracy:

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    5      10      6           0       0.333     64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
May        6       7      6           0       0.462    -67
June       8      10      3           2       0.500    132 July       6       4      4           3       0.692    639 August     8       7      2           2       0.588     81 September  6       6      5           2       0.571    376 October    5       5      4           1       0.545    293

     And the winner is...

This is a difficult call because it's hard to tell how much of Wednesday's decline was technical and how much was knee-jerk news reaction.  I guess in the absence of any better information, I'm just going to have to once again go out on a limb and call Thursday lower.  I'll be happy to be proven wrong.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $121,625 after nine trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 7 for 9 total, 5 for 5 long, 2 for 3 short, and one push.  Tonight we stand aside.

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1921.17.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

It's a shame I didn't call the market higher for Tuesday  since ir put in a great performance on some good earnings numbers.  Oh well - nothing ventured, nothing lost.  So with that out of the way, and my PC still holding up, let's move right along to Wednesday.  Chart 'em up!

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow had a great day Tuesday, gaining 215 points on a solid green marubozu that rejected Monday's hanging man and still had enough oomph to push right through its 200 day MA into the close..New steep rising RTC in place, rising indicators, still not overbought, all spells continued bullish.

The VIX: As expected, the VIX fell again Tuesday, down another 13.41% on a gap-down marubozu.. Still not oversold, steep falling RTC in place and no support til 200 day MA at 13.96.  All bearish.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are lower at 12:17 AM EDT with ES down  0.05%.  

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 1892.25 to 1921.17.  Still above so still bullish.  ES had a great day Tuesday and is now overbought  Does it pack the gear to continue higher Wednesday?  Hard to tell.  A pause may be on tap.

Dollar index:  As expected, sideways motion on Tuesday - more in sight.

Euro: Unable to break resistance at 1.2817, the euro is sagging again and looks lower Wednesday.

Transportation: The trans are on a monster roll, now 6 for 6 with a huge 3.14% (that's pi!) green marubozu on Tuesday. They're finally hit overbought though as well as resistance at 8494 so after such a nice run I'd expect a pause or some profit taking here.

Accuracy:

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    5      10      6           0       0.333     64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
May        6       7      6           0       0.462    -67
June       8      10      3           2       0.500    132
July       6       4      4           3       0.692    639
August     8       7      2           2       0.588     81
September  6       6      5           2       0.571    376
October    5       5      3           1       0.545    293

     And the winner is...

With nary a bearish sign in sight, I certainly can't call a  reversal lower here yet.  We're not even getting any warning signs.  Still, I'm feeling that after such a  big run as we've seen the last three days, Mr. Market may be due for a rest.  I'm going to guess we see some sort of doji day on Wednesday.  Accordingly, I have to call Wednesday uncertain.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $121,625 after nine trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 7 for 9 total, 5 for 5 long, 2 for 3 short, and one push.  Tonight we stand aside.

Tuesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1892.25.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

More computer troubles tonight - .  I bought new RAM for my PC on Monday, but despite my best efforts, it didn't work.  The machine refused to even produce a BIOS screen with it, so it's back to the old buggy RM until I figure this out.  And so it's another abbreviated Night Owl as there's just no telling when the whole thing will suddenly lock up.

Meanwhile, back in Marketland, we had a pretty good day Monday.  Even the Dow, dragged down by some IBM numbers not to Mr. Market's liking, managed to end in the green.  So what does this bode for Tuesday.  Let's take a quick look.

The technicals

The Dow:  Small hanging man - bearish warning but needs confirmation.  Trade was a bullish RTC trigger and indicators now rising off oversold is bullish.

The VIX:  Big 15.55% drop Monday disconfirming Friday's spinning top..Falling indicators, just off overbought, back under 20, bearish trigger on rising RTC exit - no reversal signs yet.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are lower at 12:32 AM EDT with ES down  0.34%.   Nice, if small, green candle entirely above Friday's for a two white soldiers pattern.  Also broke back above the 200 day MA - bullish.  All indicators now rising steadily off oversold - also bullish.. But - overnight fading and forming a dark cloud cover.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 1874.58 to 1892.25.  Still above, so bullish.

Dollar index:  Looks like continued sideways here.

Euro: Same here - recent advance seems to be petering out with resistance at 1.2834.

Transportation: Very nice five day run now.  Bullish RTC trigger, back above 200 day MA and steadily rising indicators - all bullish.

Accuracy:

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    5      10      6           0       0.333     64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
May        6       7      6           0       0.462    -67
June       8      10      3           2       0.500    132 July       6       4      4           3       0.692    639 August     8       7      2           2       0.588     81 September  6       6      5           2       0.571    376 October    5       5      2           1       0.545    293

     And the winner is...

Most signs are looking bullish tonight but I'm not liking the futures action at the moment.  A lot will depend on continuing earnings on Tuesday.  Accordingly, we call Tuesday uncertain.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $121,625 after nine trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 7 for 9 total, 5 for 5 long, 2 for 3 short, and one push.  Tonight we stand aside.

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher, low confidence..
• ES pivot 1874.58.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

Friday was a wild ride on the Street as we finally got the payoff I'd been expecting after two days of major reversal hammers.  Let's quickly move on to Monday because the Night Owl's computer is very sick with some bad RAM and it's crashing at unpredictable intervals (this would happen on a weekend).  So I have to type quick until I can get some new memory for the old beast on Monday.

The technicals

Canceled due to HW issues.

Accuracy:

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    5      10      6           0       0.333     64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
May        6       7      6           0       0.462    -67
June       8      10      3           2       0.500    132 
July       6       4      4           3       0.692    639
August     8       7      2           2       0.588     81 
September  6       6      5           2       0.571    376  
October    4       5      2           1       0.500    274

     And the winner is...

I hope the machine stays up long enough for me to say that I'm calling Monday higher.  Hopefully tomorrow we'll have some new RAM in here and be back to normal.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $121,625 after nine trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 7 for 9 total, 5 for 5 long, 2 for 3 short, and one push.  Tonight we stand aside - I am by policy boycotting the market until the VIX goes back below 20.