Friday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday lower, low confidence.
• ES pivot 1941.50.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

Well I sure wasn't expecting a 217 point pop in the Dow on Thursday (having called it lower).  I think Mr. Market is just in one of his manic phases where the technicals don't count for much.

The technicals

The Dow: Defying all reason, popped right back above its 200 day MA keeping the indicators rising and still not overbought.  And back into the rising RTC.  So now looks positive.

The VIX:  So much for bullish engulfing.  All we know is the VIX has good support at 16.07.  Stochastic curving around for a bullish crossover and the trade was outside the descending RTC for a bullish trigger, so technically this one's higher.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are significantly lower at 12:16 AM EDT with ES down 0.42%.  ES had a good day Thursday but the new overnight is now falling out of the rising RTC for a bearish setup.  That has also given us a completed bearish stochastic crossover.  With highly overbought indicators, this one looks lower.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot jumps from 1929.67 to 1941.50.  That now puts us back below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  A new rising RTC here but near resistance.  Too tough to call.

Euro: Small doji star Thursday and oversold indicators warn of a short-term bottom here.

Transportation:  A big 2.10% pop on Thursday belies overbought indicators and a stochastic very close to a bearish crossover.  Resistance strong at 8488.  My guess is lower Friday.

Accuracy:

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    5      10      6           0       0.333     64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
May        6       7      6           0       0.462    -67
June       8      10      3           2       0.500    132 July       6       4      4           3       0.692    639 August     8       7      2           2       0.588     81 September  6       6      5           2       0.571    376 October    5       6      3           1       0.500     76

     And the winner is...

If I had any sense I'd just call Friday uncertain, but instead I'll call Friday lower.  There are just too many bearish technical signs on the charts now to do anything else.  That's all, she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $121,625 after nine trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 7 for 9 total, 5 for 5 long, 2 for 3 short, and one push.  Tonight we stand aside.