Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 1921.17.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

It's a shame I didn't call the market higher for Tuesday  since ir put in a great performance on some good earnings numbers.  Oh well - nothing ventured, nothing lost.  So with that out of the way, and my PC still holding up, let's move right along to Wednesday.  Chart 'em up!

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow had a great day Tuesday, gaining 215 points on a solid green marubozu that rejected Monday's hanging man and still had enough oomph to push right through its 200 day MA into the close..New steep rising RTC in place, rising indicators, still not overbought, all spells continued bullish.

The VIX: As expected, the VIX fell again Tuesday, down another 13.41% on a gap-down marubozu.. Still not oversold, steep falling RTC in place and no support til 200 day MA at 13.96.  All bearish.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are lower at 12:17 AM EDT with ES down  0.05%.  

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 1892.25 to 1921.17.  Still above so still bullish.  ES had a great day Tuesday and is now overbought  Does it pack the gear to continue higher Wednesday?  Hard to tell.  A pause may be on tap.

Dollar index:  As expected, sideways motion on Tuesday - more in sight.

Euro: Unable to break resistance at 1.2817, the euro is sagging again and looks lower Wednesday.

Transportation: The trans are on a monster roll, now 6 for 6 with a huge 3.14% (that's pi!) green marubozu on Tuesday. They're finally hit overbought though as well as resistance at 8494 so after such a nice run I'd expect a pause or some profit taking here.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
May        6       7      6           0       0.462    -67
June       8      10      3           2       0.500    132

July       6       4      4           3       0.692    639
August     8       7      2           2       0.588     81
September  6       6      5           2       0.571    376
October    5       5      3           1       0.545    293

     And the winner is...

With nary a bearish sign in sight, I certainly can't call a  reversal lower here yet.  We're not even getting any warning signs.  Still, I'm feeling that after such a  big run as we've seen the last three days, Mr. Market may be due for a rest.  I'm going to guess we see some sort of doji day on Wednesday.  Accordingly, I have to call Wednesday uncertain.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $121,625 after nine trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 7 for 9 total, 5 for 5 long, 2 for 3 short, and one push.  Tonight we stand aside.

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