Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Tuesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 1892.25.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

More computer troubles tonight - .  I bought new RAM for my PC on Monday, but despite my best efforts, it didn't work.  The machine refused to even produce a BIOS screen with it, so it's back to the old buggy RM until I figure this out.  And so it's another abbreviated Night Owl as there's just no telling when the whole thing will suddenly lock up.

Meanwhile, back in Marketland, we had a pretty good day Monday.  Even the Dow, dragged down by some IBM numbers not to Mr. Market's liking, managed to end in the green.  So what does this bode for Tuesday.  Let's take a quick look.

The technicals

The Dow:  Small hanging man - bearish warning but needs confirmation.  Trade was a bullish RTC trigger and indicators now rising off oversold is bullish.

The VIX:  Big 15.55% drop Monday disconfirming Friday's spinning top..Falling indicators, just off overbought, back under 20, bearish trigger on rising RTC exit - no reversal signs yet.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are lower at 12:32 AM EDT with ES down  0.34%.   Nice, if small, green candle entirely above Friday's for a two white soldiers pattern.  Also broke back above the 200 day MA - bullish.  All indicators now rising steadily off oversold - also bullish.. But - overnight fading and forming a dark cloud cover.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 1874.58 to 1892.25.  Still above, so bullish.

Dollar index:  Looks like continued sideways here.

Euro: Same here - recent advance seems to be petering out with resistance at 1.2834.

Transportation: Very nice five day run now.  Bullish RTC trigger, back above 200 day MA and steadily rising indicators - all bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
May        6       7      6           0       0.462    -67
June       8      10      3           2       0.500    132
July       6       4      4           3       0.692    639 August     8       7      2           2       0.588     81 September  6       6      5           2       0.571    376 October    5       5      2           1       0.545    293

     And the winner is...

Most signs are looking bullish tonight but I'm not liking the futures action at the moment.  A lot will depend on continuing earnings on Tuesday.  Accordingly, we call Tuesday uncertain.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $121,625 after nine trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 7 for 9 total, 5 for 5 long, 2 for 3 short, and one push.  Tonight we stand aside.

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