Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday higher.
  • ES pivot 2322.83  Holding above is bullish..
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Last night I wasn't quite sure which way the market was going on Tuesday so I called it uncertain.  Turn out Mr. Market had no doubts at all though, it was basically a meandering continuous rise good for 92 points by the closing bell.  So we left that one on the table but as the old saying goes, nothing ventured, nothing lost.  So let's just move on to Thursday as op-ex week rolls on.

The technicals

The VIX:  On Monday the VIX moved higher, but on a red candle.  So which do you go with - the confirmation of Friday's doji or the steady intraday downtrend?  Turns out the latter was the right answer as the VIX  shed three percent on Tuesday giving up the 11 handle and bringing it to a closing level not seen since the end of last month.  And now with two red candles in place and recent support broken and the lower BB all the way down at 10.19 I see nothing bullish about this chart.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:22 AM EST with ES up just one tick but YM up 0.14%

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2322.83 to 2331.50.  But once again ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January   10      2       7           1       0.846    595

February   4      0       6           0       1.000    519

     And the winner is...

Other than all the indicators now being overbought, I can't find any bearish signs on Tuesday's charts.  With the Dow up now four in a row and YM looking healthy in the new overnight, this isn't a tape I particularly care to fight.  Therefore I'm going to call Wednesday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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