Thursday, October 6, 2016

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
  • ES pivot 2150.75.  Neither bullish nor bearish..
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Well just when things were looking grim, the Dow rebounded on Wednesday, gaining 113 after two days of losses to finish exactly where we were at the start of this week.  Meanwhile indicators continue to wander aimlessly halfway between oversold and overbought.  Is there any sense to be made of all of this?  I've got to admit I'm starting to wonder myself but I'll have another look at the charts just to make sure.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly lower at 12:26 AM EDT with ES down 0.08%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2146.83 to 2150.75.   That leaves ES sitting exactly on top of its new pivot so this indicator is neither bullish nor bearish at this time.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October    0      1       2           0       0.000     -85

     And the winner is...

With ongoing uncertainty demonstrated in the indicators which continue to wander about between oversold and overbought as well as a lack of good candles, and with ES sitting right on top of its new pivot, this seems like a good time to make a conditional call.  If ES breaks above its pivot and stays there by mid-morning Thursday we'll close higher.  But if it breaks below and stays there, we close lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Due to some people who just won't honor my request not to post spam on my blog, I have had to re-enable comment moderation. Comments may take up to 24 hour to appear, depending on when they're made. Sorry about that.