Tuesday, October 4, 2016

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday higher.
  • ES pivot 2164.57.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

October ran true to form on Monday providing us with a 54 point loss in the Dow to open the month.  I'm glad I called it uncertain though because rising futures and a bullish harami candle looked decidedly not bearish last night. What I'm looking for tonight is some certainty for Tuesday - that would be a refreshing change for once.  Is it possible to get all the charts, futures, and indicators to all agree?  Let's take a look and decide.

Dow, daily
The technicals

The DowNote what appears to be a nearly completed symmetrical triangle in the Dow (and a few others too) right now.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:06 AM EDT with ES up 0.12%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot barely moves from 2154.83 to 2164.57.  After noodling about the old level this evening, ES has broken above the new pivot thus keeping this indicator bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120

September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October    0      0       1           0       0.000       0

     And the winner is...

Hmm.  There's not really a lot of direction I can see in the charts tonight.  The best I've got comes from the VIX which put in a tall dark cloud cover last Friday and confirmed it with a small red harami on Monday indicating a possibility of a move lower.  There's also a chance the symmetrical triangle in the Dow could resolve to the upside shortly and the futures are at least somewhat higher at the moment.  So I'm going to go out on a limb and call Tuesday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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