Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2146.83.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Well we got the break in last night's symmetrical triangle alright on Tuesday only wouldn't you know it, it was in the opposite direction I was expecting.  I did mention that I was going out on a limb with my call for a higher close and when you do that, sometimes the limb snaps out from under you.  There wasn't even any major news catalyst (that I heard of anyway) to account for this.  The day did actually open with a triple digit gain int eh Dow but after some wobbling around the 10 AM reversal hour, the bears wrested control and it was all downhill from there.

I guess sometimes stuff just happens.  And I suppose it is October after all.  At least one thing there's never any shortage of is new days so we examine the charts to see what the next one may bring.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly lower at 12:16 AM EDT with ES down just 0.02%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2154.67 to 2146.83.   That leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator now turns bearish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59

October    0      1       1           0       0.000     -85

     And the winner is...

Tonight ES continues to fall after putting in three days of lower highs and two of lower lows.  However, we're also seeing a lot of indecision particularly from the VIX which put in a lopsided spinning top on Tuesday.  And all the indicators continue to wander around between overbought and oversold.  In fact, things are looking a lot like they were last night.  I took a chance then and it didn't pay off.  Tonight I'm through playing the fool so I'm just calling Wednesday uncertain and that's that.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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