Monday, April 27, 2015

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday higher.
  • ES pivot 2109.83.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing buy here.

We ended last week with yet another doji, this one a long-legged spinning top good for all of 21 points in the Dow.  I'm glad I called that "uncertain" as these small change days are barely worth getting out of bed for.  Now as the month finally grinds to a conclusion, let's see if we can't get something a bit more definitive going here as we check the charts for Monday.

The technicals

The Dow:  Well there is one thing you can say for the Dow.  It looks to me like we have an ascending triangle pattern going here and it's just about completely baked.  If so, that would be quite a bullish sign.  The indicators continue to wander aimlessly between oversold and overbought so there's clearly a bit of room to run here.

The VIX:  Last Thursday night I figured a tall hammer that nearly touched the lower BB meant a move higher was on the way.  Well it was not to be as the VIX fell some more on Friday, down another 1.52%, but on a tall gravestone doji that respected Thursday's low.  Now that's an even better reversal sign so I still think the VIX is due for a move higher from here especially since we're now at six month lows.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are just slightly higher at 12:14 AM EDT with ES up  0.02%.  ES is now on  five day winning streak and has cleared all remaining resistance.  And it's still not overbought.  So with the upper BB now at 2121, there's still some room to run here.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2103.00 to 2109.83.  ES is still above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish

Dollar index:  Last Thursday night I noted some dollar support and deferred committing on it pending confirmation.  Good thing too because on Friday the dollar sliced right through that support to gap down 0.36%.  That leaves us with 2/3 of a morning star with oversold indicators but it, one again requires confirmation so still no call here.

Euro:  And of course the euro fooled me on Friday by moving higher again, to 1.0875.  The resulting fast spinning top is a weak reversal indicator and RSI has started moving lower, though still overbought.  The Sunday overnight is also headed down so perhaps the euro may be headed lower on Monday.

Transportation:  The trans broke a four day winning streak Friday with a small doji star in bearish harami position that also caused a bearish stochastic crossover.    And with indicators now pretty overbought, this looks like a good sign for a move lower on Monday.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      2      6       6           0       0.250    -80

     And the winner is...

I may live to regret it because the charts are not all in agreement but I think there are just enough positive signs tonight for me to go out on a limb and call Monday higher.

Single Stock Trader

VZ was unable to make any headway last Friday with a spinning top sitting right on its upper BB and indicators nearly overbought.  It's definitely not looking like a swing buy for Monday.

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