Friday, April 24, 2015

Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2103.00.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing buy here.

The hits just keep coming, or more like it the uncertainty just keeps rolling along.  On Thursday the Dow was down adn it was up, finally ending up all of 20 points on a long-legged spinning top.  That's three reversal signs in a row and yet we're still only 23 points away from Monday's close after hundreds of points of gyrations.  Is this the reversal warning that finally takes hold?  Let's see if the charts agree, though I'm beginning to have my doubts as we finish off a weird week.

The technicals

The Dow:  After all the shouting was down on Thursday the Dow was almost unchanged.  And the indicators continue to weave around almost exactly halfway between overbought and oversold.  There's simply no technical guidance here, at least none that I can find, so we'll just take another pass.

The VIX:  Last night, in what was probably my best call all week I wrote "with support nearby, [any downside is] probably limited.".  And so the VIX fell 1.81% to 12.48 after rejecting a probe down to its lower BB to finish right around its week-long support.  The VIX is getting pretty low right here and that has me thinking that a move higher has to be coming soon, just for mean-reversion's sake if nothing else.

Market index futures: Tonight, the futures are mixed at 1:27 AM EDT with ES down 0.09%.  Last night at this hour ES was looking lethargic but it somehow managed to muster the mojo required to hit its upper BB on Thursday.  That's generally the Third Rail of futures so with OBV having peaked I'm going to cautiously claim ES goes lower on Friday.  And ES is sagging a bit in the overnight too, though it also was last night and that ended proving nothing.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2094.75 to 2103.00.  That leaves ES just a bit  above the new pivot so this indicate remains bullish but just barely.

Dollar index:  At least the dollar made a definitive mode on Thursday, down a big 0;70% to break its recent trio of dojis and stopping only at week-long support.  But that still leaves us nowhere.  Indicators are oversold but not extremely so.  It all depends if this support hold so we defer once again.

Euro:  And pretty much the same story in euro-land with a move up to recent resistance around 1.0830.  At least here the indicators are overbought enough and resistance is strong enough that I'd hazard a guess that the euro goes lower on Friday.

Transportation:  And finally last night I wouldnt' commit to calling the trans lower on the basis of a hanging man and it's good I didn't because even after touching their upper BB on Wednesday, they moved higher still on Thursday up and other 0.477%.  But now we've got yet another spinning top here so there's no calling this chart.  My vague guess is that we're due for a move lower simply because we've now popped off the left edge of the rising RTC on overbought indicators.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976  April      2      6       5           0       0.250    -80

     And the winner is...

Sigh - once again we've got dojis here and there plus some charts up against resistance lines and all of that requires confirmation.  So regrettably I'm going to have to call Friday uncertain for the third consecutive night.  Maybe we'll get some decent swing trade action next week.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Along with everything else VZ confounded my expectations on Thursday with a big pop to punch right through its upper BB and YTD resistance too.  I'll admit I missed this bus but the question now becomes do we get any follow-though or is VZ going to reverse?  I'm afraid I need some confirmation here so we stay away again.

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