Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2089.00.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing buy here.

Well it figures.  I guess it was too much to ask to get two right in a row.  I called Tuesday higher so of course it went lower.  April continues to confound but we persist anyhow.  At this point I'll be happy to make it to "sell in May".  Meanwhile, we take a look at Where Wednesday is headed.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow didn't go higher on Tuesday, instead it lost 85 points after a brief burst positive off the open.  Then it was all downhill from there.  That sent the indicators all scurrying back lower again and gave us a bearish RTC trigger too.  Now this chart looks bearish again.  Unless we're in one of those up/down/up cycles.  Who knows.

The VIX:  Reinforcing how odd this market is, we got another day where the market fell and the VIX went lower too, down 0.38%, very nearly as much as the Dow.  But it was on a weird green candle the confirmed support at 12.63.  With indicators still halfway between overbought and oversold, I've no clue where this one is going next.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:14 AM EDT with ES up  0.08%.  On Tuesday ES gave us a tall gravestone doji - and a bullish stochastic crossover - and falling money flow but rising OBV.  In other words, the technicals are all over the map here.  But the small rise in the overnight was enough to trigger  bullish stochastic crossover so that's encouraging.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2089.00  to 2094.50. That move was enough to now place ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  At least I was smart enough to avoid calling the dollar last night and that's just as well since on Tuesday after a doji star it put in another doji - this one a tall spindly spinning top for a gain of all of 0.05%.  The stochastic is flat on the floor so there's no clue where this is going next.

Euro:  Adding to the uncertainty, the euro on Tuesday also put in a tall doji star ending virtually unchanged at 1.0742.  With indicators now rather overbought, it looks like the next move would be lower but with this market, who knows.

Transportation:  And as a final joke, on Tuesday the trans rose 0.25% on a day the Dow fell 0.47%.  But did it on a tall hanging man with indicators nearly overbought.  So that's a suggestion of lower to come though with all the weirdness going on lately, this definitely needs confirmation.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      2      6       3           0       0.250    -80

     And the winner is...

Right now the market feels like it's searching for a direction.  The charts are as indeterminate as they are in the middle of the dog days of summer and I'm just not feeling the love tonight, baby.  So I'm just going to have to go ahead and call Wednesday uncertain.  Hey, nothing ventured, nothing lost.

Single Stock Trader

VZ continues to put in one spinning top after another, Tuesday's being quite long-legged and just touching the lower BB.  That may be fine for day trading but there are no good swing entry points in the stock right now that I can see.  If it doesn't change soon, we may go hunt4ing for a new stock that's better behaved.

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