Monday, July 13, 2015

Monday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2062.83.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Well the market rose as expected last Friday because Mr. Market believed the Greeks the same way Linus believed Lucy wasn't going to pull the football away when he was about to place-kick it.  Ho hum.  So, after seeing a Good Greek, that means we must be in line for a day of the Bad Greeks, right?  Let's see if the charts can sort it out in time for Monday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow scored another triple digit gain the net result of which was that we ended up exactly where we were seven trading days ago.  It also makes nine consecutive days of 200 day MA crosses in a row.  The net take-away is that there's strong resistance at 17,755.  Unless we get a breakout on Monday it seems more likely we go down again.

The VIX:  After spending six of the last eight above its upper BB, on Friday the VIX finally threw in the towel and dove nearly 16% back under 17.  That sent the indicators off overbought and set up the stochastic for a bearish crossover.  So technically this chart looks lower - ah but then there's them Greeks....

Market index futures: Tonight, the futures are essentially flat for the first time in quite a while at 12:26 AM EDT with ES down  all of 0.01% but YM up 0.01%.  On Friday ES confirmed Thursday's gravestone doji off the 200 day MA with a nice gain and is now almost back to recent strong resistance around 2072.  That in itself would seem to limit potential upside.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot jumps from 2049.17 to 2062.83. But ES still remains above the new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  After a crazy week of up and down gaps, the dollar on Friday ended exactly where it began after a 0.64% loss.  But we remain overbought and a completed stochastic crossover is in effect so the possibility of more downside on Monday remains.

Euro:  On Friday the euro climbed to 1.1150, its eighth day in a row of alternating down/up action.  The overnight is continuing higher but Monday's close will surely be dictated by the news from Greece.

Transportation:  On Friday the trans outperformed the Dow to break resistance at 8176 on a tall green marubozu.  The indicators are now marching steadily toward overbought so there's nothing bearish about this chart tonight.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       5      0       0           0       1.000    784

     And the winner is...

Once again the market is hanging on the latest installment of As the Drachma Turns as the European scriptwriters burn the midnight oil trying to answer the question posed by those noted geopolitical analysts, The Clash, about Greece, "Should I stay or should I go?"  I personally have no clue, but the outcome will determine Monday's close, not the technicals.  Therefore, I call Monday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

VZ went up on Friday, along with the entire rest of the Dow.  It's all being run by Greece at the moment, so there's no point discussing it any further until that whole bro-ha is settled.

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