Thursday, April 16, 2015

Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday higher....
  • ES pivot 2097.50.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Firday bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Oh great.  Sometimes I get on these wrong-streaks and this is one of them.  I called Wednesday lower so of course it went higher.  Perhaps I did not give enough credence to the futures and the VIX.  Well we won't make that mistake again, at least not soon.  So let's see what lessons we an apply here for Thursday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Wednesday the Dow completely ignored a bearish harami and overbought indicators to gain another 76 points.  That keeps the rising RTC intact and to heck with the indicators which are now all broken at overbought.  The next key point is the upper BB at 18,215 and I expect to touch that on Thursday.

The VIX:  At least I was right last night when I wrote "I'd not be surprised to see the VIX lower on Wednesday."  That dark cloud cover yielded a 6% drop on Wednesday.  With two black crows cawing away now we see the lower BB and support both at 12.37 next up and I expect to hit them on Thursday - could be a bottoming day.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12: 10 AM EDT with ES up  0.10%  ES had a nice day on Wednesday climbing back to resistance around 2100.  Indicators are all way overbought but broken at these levels.  There's new resistance at 2107 and then the upper BB at 2111 but after being so overbought for a week now, does ES have to mojo to reach that?  The overnight pin action seems to suggest it might.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2086.50 to 2097.50. That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Well I was right about this one too last night when I wrote "I say the dollar goes lower again Wednesday".  And down we went, off another 0.42%.  That's two black crows,  a bearish trigger on a rising RTC exit and a completed bearish stochastic crossover.  And that all spells lower again in my book.

Euro:  Meanwhile the euro continued its bounce Monday off its lower BB with another gain Wednesday.  It was a hanging man but the new overnight seems to be dis-confirming that and with indicators still only just barely off oversold, there seems to be plenty of room to run as the Parityville Express suddenly moves into reverse.

Transportation: Whoa - the trans have been positively psychopathic the past few days.  On Tuesday we got a giant hammer and on Wednesday we got an equally large inverted hammer.  After a two day swing between 8586 and 8784, we finished nearly unchanged.  What we did get was a bearish RTC trigger, overbought indicators and a bearish stochastic crossover.  Hey, I can't be wrong forever and technically this spells lower to me.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
arch       7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      1      4       2           0       0.200   -197

     And the winner is...

I've been finding this choppy action lately tough to deal with but I guess we'll take another stab at it.  With a more or less general uptrend in place and in the absence of any  topping candles or negativity from the futures, I guess I'll just go ahead and call Thursday higher.

Single Stock Trader

With its stochastic having suddenly threaded out halfway between overbought and oversold, VZ is no longer oscillating nicely the way it had been all the way back to last December.  This is definitely not my ideal swing trade setup, though that doesn't mean VZ couldn't continue to go higher from here.

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