Friday, August 5, 2016

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday higher.
  • ES pivot 2153.50.  Holding above is bullish..
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Perhaps flipping a coin would be the best way of calling the market these days after all.  I called for a higher close and although the SPX did indeed gain all of 0.46 points, the Dow lost 2.95 points.  With a perfect doji like that, there's just no calling the outcome.  We make one last attempt to get on the scoreboard before the Olympics start Friday night.  As I mentioned earlier, I will be taking two weeks of vacation to devote myself entirely to the Olympics.  Now that the dog days of summer are in full swing, it seems like a good time to take some time off anyway.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:22 AM EDT with ES up 0.14%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises  from 2153.50 to 2159.17.  ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     0      3       1           0       0.000     -71

     And the winner is...

We came close to being correct last night with a call for a move higher but were perhaps just a day too early.  ES is now in a clear uptrend and oil exited a long descending RTC for a bullish setup on Thursday.  Also on Thursday the trans rose 0.11% outperforming the Dow once again and the VIX confirmed a dark cloud cover Wednesday with a further 3.42% drop.  And the Dow itself by not resuming its two-week decline after a small gain on Wednesday may be ready to pull out of that particular funk.  So the charts generally tonight are looking at least as good as last night.  Now I may be just a glutton for punishment but based on all that I have to call Friday higher.

That's all she wrote for two weeks.  See you again after the Olympics!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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