Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher.
• ES pivot 2153.50.  Holding above is bullish..
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Recap

Perhaps flipping a coin would be the best way of calling the market these days after all.  I called for a higher close and although the SPX did indeed gain all of 0.46 points, the Dow lost 2.95 points.  With a perfect doji like that, there's just no calling the outcome.  We make one last attempt to get on the scoreboard before the Olympics start Friday night.  As I mentioned earlier, I will be taking two weeks of vacation to devote myself entirely to the Olympics.  Now that the dog days of summer are in full swing, it seems like a good time to take some time off anyway.

The technicals


Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:22 AM EDT with ES up 0.14%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises  from 2153.50 to 2159.17.  ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     0      3       1           0       0.000     -71

     And the winner is...

We came close to being correct last night with a call for a move higher but were perhaps just a day too early.  ES is now in a clear uptrend and oil exited a long descending RTC for a bullish setup on Thursday.  Also on Thursday the trans rose 0.11% outperforming the Dow once again and the VIX confirmed a dark cloud cover Wednesday with a further 3.42% drop.  And the Dow itself by not resuming its two-week decline after a small gain on Wednesday may be ready to pull out of that particular funk.  So the charts generally tonight are looking at least as good as last night.  Now I may be just a glutton for punishment but based on all that I have to call Friday higher.

That's all she wrote for two weeks.  See you again after the Olympics!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.