Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Wednesday lower.
- ES pivot 2155.08. Holding below is bearish..
- Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias lower.
- YM futures trader: short at 17,670.
The Dow's been sagging for two weeks now but the SPX has been pretty much just wandering about. Perhaps that changed on Tuesday with a broad decline in the market that even took the Nasdaq with it. Is this a break lower or just another fake-out like we had last week? We check the charts and draw some conclusions.The technicals
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:24 AM EDT with ES down 0.13%.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2167.33 to 2155.08. Despite this big drop, ES is now below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.
Accuracy:
average points
January 9 5 5 0 0.643 1433
February 9 3 5 3 0.800 1133
March 8 6 6 1 0.600 222
April 6 4 8 2 0.667 416
May 9 3 4 4 0.813 756
June 8 5 7 1 0.643 1393
July 5 6 6 2 0.539 -304
August 0 1 1 0 0.000 -28
And the winner is...
Tonight we're seeing a number of fairly bearish signs on the charts, including a bearish stochastic crossover in SPX, continuing weakness in the Dow (though its RSI hit zero on Tuesday indicating a reversal can't be too far off), a breakdown in ES with negative overnight pin action, and a bullish stochastic crossover in the VIX along with a bullish setup on a descending RTC exit. With August a historically weak month, I don't see how I can make any other call than Wednesday lower in the face of this evidence.
YM Futures Trader
No trade tonight.
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