Friday, June 19, 2015

Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday higher.
  • ES pivot 2113.67.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week  bias uncertain  technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Well so much for indecision.  Mr. Market decided a triple digit post-Fed celebration was in order on Thursday, contrary to my expectations.  Oh well - I'm always net long so I don't mind being wrong in this case.  But now we must redeem ourselves for Friday so let's get right to it.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Thursday the Dow rejected Wednesday's spinning top in a big way zooming up another 180 points to regain the 18K mark and clear resistance at 18,040.  That also drove the indicators overbought for the first time in three weeks but I can't really see any technical bearish signs here.

The VIX:  And the VIX also rejected its own spinning top Thursday to gap down a big 9%.  It was a hammer but also a strong bearish stochastic crossover.  With declining indicators, my vote is for continued lower here.

Market index futures: Tonight, the futures are mixed  at 12:29 AM EDT with ES down 0.11% but YM up 0.01%.  ES had a great day Thursday popping right past resistance at 2111 and closing in on its upper BB at 2134.  That was enough to send the indicators overbought though the stochastic hasn't yet begun to curve around for a bearish crossover.  The overnight is sagging a bit but it was last night at this point too and we know how that ended.  So I can't really call this one lower on Friday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises  again from 2097.17 to 2113.67.  And despite that jump, ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I called the dollar lower again Thursday and I was right about that as it gapped down all the way to its lower BB before ending with a small green marubozu and a 0.26% loss.  But this is a decent reversal sign now so I'd guess we go higher Friday.

Euro:  And I was right about the euro too last night when I wrote that "more upside is possible Thursday" as it closed back to 1.1383 and nearly touched its upper BB on an inverted hammer.   But the overnight seems to be continuing higher and with indicators not yet overbought I can't just yet call the euro lower.

Transportation:  Well at least I was right when last night I wrote that "there's a chance this one could reverse Thursday.".  It was a great chance, with the trans up 1.54% on a bi green marubozu that popped them right out of their descending RTC for a bullish setup and a bullish stochastic crossover.  This all looks positive but for the fact that we ended right on resistance at 8448.  Do the trans have the requisite moxie to push higher?  I think they might.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       5      3       3           3       0.727    283

     And the winner is...

With a three-day winning streak going, I don't really see any bearish signs on the charts tonight, other than a toppy looking ES.  Some indicators have gone overbought but not by much.  The SPX Hi/Lo index continues to rise and the VIX looks like it still has some room to run lower.  We also seem to have put in a double bottom, which is a bullish sign.  My real concern it that it's op-ex Friday and so anything can happen but what the heck, I'll just call Friday higher.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

I'll admit I missed this one.  VZ rose on Thursday, along with the rest of the Dow.  But it finished right at resistance so I just still can't get on board.  I'm afraid the majority of this swing as already gone.  It just isn't the sort of entry point I look for.

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