Thursday, May 8, 2014

Thursday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 1868.17.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Sigh - sometimes you just can win for losing.  I thought the market was going lower on Wednesday, but instead it went higher, with the Dow up triple digits, for whatever reason.  Doh!  Well that was then, as they say, this is now.  Perhaps the charts will give us the key to Thursday for a change.

The technicals

The Dow: On Wednesday the Dow gave us a big bullish harami that was enough to bend the indicators higher after  week-long slide off overbought..  It still counts as a descending RTC but the candle is a bullish reversal warning.

The VIX: I blew this one too - the VIX did not go higher on Wednesday, it went lower by 2.90% but only after a failed test of the 200 day MA that left us with a giant inverted hammer.  That said it's now looking like a developing symmetrical triangle, which makes me think the break could very well be lower.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 12:41 AM EDT with ES up just 0.04%.  On Wednesday ES retraced most of Tuesday's losses thereby canceling what finally looked like a break lower.  We're now back in a funny nervous sort of trading range sort of like we saw March 18th through 26th.  This chart is remarkably opaque, at least to me tonight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dips exactly one point from 1869.17 to 1868.17.  We broke above the old number Wednesday afternoon, so this indicator is now bullish.

Dollar index:  Well hallelujah - I got one right.  Last night I wrote "the dollar's going higher on Wednesday." and it did, recovering 0.14% after a trouncing on Tuesday.  But that still leaves us on the lower BB with indicators extremely oversold.  So with the inverted hammer confirmed, I have to think Thursday's going higher.

Euro: On Wednesday the euro took a breather with a stubby spinning top near the high of Tuesday' big advance, centering around the upper BB.  But it looks like that was it, as the overnight is now moving lower as the overbought indicators begin to assert themselves.

Transportation: And last but not least, I missed the trans too, which moved higher by 0.57% on Wednesday, not lower. That counts as a bullish RTC setup even as the indicators remain overbought.  So they cancel each other out and this chart is too tough to call.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107

March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
May        0       3      2           0       0.000   -158

     And the winner is...

Gosh, I don't know - I'm just not feeling the love tonight.  I hate to do it again but tonight I'm just going to have to shrug and call Thursday uncertain.  Remember, there's no rule that says you have to trade.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $111,625 after three trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 3 for 3 total, 2 for 2 long, 1 for 1 short.  Tonight we stand aside.

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