Friday, June 26, 2015


The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday lower.
  • ES pivot 2099.58.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Foo - I thought Mr. Market had had enough last night but apparently not as the Dow sank another 76 on Thursday as the buyers continued to sit on their hands.  Will Friday make them stand up and salute?  Let's see what the charts have to say about that.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow is now in full-on bearish mode with two black crows, a bearish RTC trigger and a completed bearish stochastic crossover.  Last night I wrote that "there's nothing technically bullish about this chart" and tonight that goes double.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote that "this chart just looks higher again on Thursday.".  And indeed it was, up another 5.66% for a bullish trigger on a descending RTC exit.  Add in a bullish stochastic crossover and these two white soldiers look ready to march higher still on Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower  at 1:48 AM EDT with ES down 0.07%  %.  ES on Thursday did pretty much the same thing as the Dow so my comments above for that go here too.  And the new overnight isn't doing much to dispel that either.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2105.67 to 2099.58.  So ES remains below its new pivot and this indicator just continues bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote "this one looks lower again on Thursday" and indeed it was, but just barely with a 0.03% squeaker.  But this little doji star moved the stochastic closer to a bearish crossover and so this chart still looks bearish to me.

Euro:  And on Thursday the euro had a similar doji star as it consolidates at the base of Tuesday's big dump.  But indicators have finally gone oversold and the stochastic is about to give us a bullish crossover so I'd guess this one goes higher on Friday.

Transportation:  Last night I figured the trans had gone about as low as they were going to go, and I was wrong.  On Thursday they were stopped only by their lower BB at 8240.   The last time we closed this low was last October 8th!  And the indicators are still a ways from oversold so with two red marubozus on the record, there's still nothing bullish here.  Thanks, Greece.  Thanks for nothing.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       7      5       3           4       0.688    235

     And the winner is...

Thursday's action only provided bearish confirmation of Wednesday's charts.  If we didn't get a reversal Thursday I don't think we're going to get one Friday as the charts are looking generally ugly.  Now Russell rebalancing could conceivably throw a monkey wrench in the works and I'd love to see a move higher, but I'm afraid I'm going to have to call Friday lower.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

VZ was one of only a handful of Dow stocks that managed to rise on Thursday but it was on a red inverted hammer with a bearish stochastic crossover, trading outside its rising RTC again for a bearish trigger.  So VZ remains most definitely not a swing trade buy.

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