Monday, June 29, 2015

Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday lower....
  • ES pivot 2094.25.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Well the Dow closed higher Friday thanks in large part to some outperformance by Nike.  I had called for the market to go lower and while the SPX and Nasdaq both did just that, my benchmark is the Dow so that counts as a miss.  Tonight though, we're looking at a holiday-shortened week and more bad news out of Greece.  It's now looking like those freakin' Greeks are prepared to go down with the ship and hope to take everyone else with them.  So we're making one call this week and then taking a vacation until after the Fourth of July by which time one would think some measure of sanity will have returned to the markets.  Meanwhile, Monday is a foregone conclusion so we're skipping the usual chart run-down and cutting straight to the chase..

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot drops from 2099.58 to 2094.25 as ES take the biggest opening gap down I think I've ever seen.  ES is now a whopping 28 points below its new pivot so this indicator is bearish indeed.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       7      6       3           4       0.647    179

     And the winner is...

With the futures acting like the End of Days is upon us this evening, it's pretty clear that we're closing lower Monday.

Single Stock Trader

Just look for VZ to get hammered on Monday along with the rest of the market.  So what, the Greeks can't pay their bills so Americans are going to start making fewer phone calls?

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