Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday higher.
  • ES pivot 2031.00.  Holding above is bullish
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ trade finished, +1.3 points.

Last night I let myself get scared away from making a bullish call largely on the basis of some sagging futures, opting instead for a wimpy cop-out of "uncertain".  Lesson learned as the Dow shot up over 300 points on Tuesday.  So the roller coaster ride goes on and on.  Which way will we wend on Wednesday?  The charts hold the wanswer.

The technicals

The Dow:  I got this much spot on last night when I wrote "I have to vote higher from here on Tuesday.".  And that was the winning vote with a 1.76% jump in the Dow.  That was also a bullish RTC trigger, a completed bullish stochastic crossover, and it sent all the indicators rising off oversold.  So nothing bearish here tonight.

The VIX:  And last night I also wrote "[a lot of technical mumbo jumbo] spells lower in my book".  And it was a good spelling lesson as the VIX dumped nearly 11% on Tuesday to fall out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup, form a new bearish stochastic crossover and send all the indicators scurrying lower.  I think there's still more downside available from here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12: 16 AM EST with ES down 0.07% but YM up 0.05%.  ES had a great day Tuesday.  But after all the recent turbulence, we're still just right back where we were a week ago.  The momentum is clearly higher at this point.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot jumps from 2003.08 to 2031.00. We remain above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote "dollar looks lower again from here".  And so on Tuesday it gapped down for a huge 1.06% loss and a bearish RTC trigger.  And a bearish stochastic crossover.  RSI just went oversold but I don't think that's enough to save the dollar just yet.

Euro:  Last night I was uber-cautious on the euro, claiming only that "I think there's enough gas in the tank for a move higher".  Well that tank was brimming full with the euro powering to a 1.1491 close Tuesday.  That was also good for a bullish setup on a long-running (12/17/14) descending RTC exit.  It also drove RTC overbought but the other indicators aren't quite there yet so it's not impossible we go higher again on Wednesday.

Transportation:  The trans pretty much mirrored the Dow on Tuesday so all of my comments there apply here too.  It's looking bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   1      0       1           0       1.000    196

     And the winner is...

After two strong days the temptation is to call for a pause but with the VIX back under 20 and no real bullish signs about, I guess I just have to go ahead and call Wednesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

With a nice pop in VZ on Tuesday I unloaded it at 47.79.  Verizon has now just paid me for a month and a half of their service, nyah nyah.  VZ might go even higher on Wednesday, or it might not.  Either way, we now sit back and await the next entry point.  It's a swing trade, not part of my retirement portfolio (though it would be a great component for that too).


  1. Hello,

    Good to read you are still producing good daily commentary. I have been missing from ES since August 2014 and slowly coming back to the ES world. I notice you don't update the ES records anymore. Good trade on the VZ.

    Thanks for all you do.

    1. "I notice you don't update the ES records anymore. "

      Huh? I'm not sure I understand. I haven't changed anything about ES. I comment on its chart and its pivot every night as usual.

  2. Thanks for responding.

    The account records. lol. It was always nice to watch the $100k increase as I read the daily commentary. Thanks

    1. Oh wiat a minute -are you talking about the ESFT? the "ES Fantasy Trader"? I don't ever recall making $100K in a single trade (though that would have been nice). I discontinued the ESFT at the end of 2014 in favor of the new "Single Stock Trader" which seems more closely attuned to reality.

      Unless you're talking about something else. Can you be more specific?

  3. Yes, I was talking about the ES Fantasy Trader. You use take ES trades with a starting balance of $100K at the beginning of the year.

    You have a great blog and like the single stock trading of VZ. Can you explain a bit (if you have time) why trading VZ and not the ES anymore? I am just asking.

    Thank you so much for responding.


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