Friday, June 3, 2016

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday uncertain
  • ES pivot 2098.42.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: staying short at 17740

Original Poster Switzerland Suiza Valais Old House Traditional Alps NatureVolume ran below average on Thursday in some peculiar trading as the market moved higher despite some not so good economic news.  We indeed started off lower as I expected but the Dow spent the rest of the day clambering higher to end with a 49 point gain.  Go figure.  We now end the holiday-shortened first week of June with yet another Night Owl Lite.  I just can't seem to get ahead of the curve here.  Perhaps I can catch up over the weekend.  Meanwhile, we go directly to the results.

The technicals

The VIX:  After a 4% drop Thursday the VIX looks like it could go lower again Friday, though the indicators remain oversold.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly lower at 12:26 AM EST with ES down 0.04%. ES had a decent day Thursday but has been putting in one reversal candle after another - but not reversing.  April resistance remains intact and the indicators all continue highly overbought.  It's hard to see where the energy is coming from for the next push higher.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls  from 2089.92 to 2098.42.  ES is back above its new pivot so this indicator is now bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756

June       0      1       1           0       0.000     -49

     And the winner is...

I don't know.  I called Thursday lower based on what looked to be a toppy market and it didn't happen.  Tonight all the same factors are still in play but with one failure already on the books I'm reluctant to call Friday lower.  But we're so overbought I can't see calling it higher either..These post-Memorial Day weeks tend to be jittery anyway so I'm just going to call Friday uncertain and live to trade another day.  That's all she barely wrote.  See you again next Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

Staying short at 17740This trade actually was in a profitable position early Thursday morning but I was still asleep.  By the tie I got up at the crack of 11 AM, it was already gone.  Hey, you gotta sleep sometime.


  1. I can't see any good reason either for the market to make a new all-time high, but of course now that I've said that, it's probably going to make an all-time high. But last year, after making the all-time high, it came tumbling down, so it's just a matter of time.

    1. Seems that way to me. I guess we'll find out Friday.


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