Friday, July 24, 2015

Friday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday lower.
  • ES pivot 2101.25.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Bah - I blew it.  The Dow did not go up Thursday, it went down.  Serves me right for getting fixated on the futures instead of paying attention to the charts which as I even mentioned, were looking pretty bearish.  And there weren't even any Greeks to blame it on.  What ever happened to them?  They got some loan so they could pay an earlier loan and then seemingly fell right over the event horizon.  Oh well - good riddance.  Ahem, anyway, moving right along, let's see if we can't come up with a more balanced approach to Friday.

The technicals

The Dow:  Last night I wrote "I can't call the Dow higher from here.".  Too bad I didn't factor that into my call because the Dow did go lower, with another triple digit loss Thursday.  And ominously, on Thursday the Dow went negative for the year again and also broke down through its 200 day MA again.  RSI has gone oversold but the stochastic is nowhere near a bullish crossover.  So with three black crows flapping about, this chart just looks ugly.

The VIX:  Despite a bearish engulfing pattern last night I didnt' want to call the VIX lower and that was good because it rose 4.29% Thursday on a bullish piercing pattern.  The indicators are all rising and now just of oversold so this one looks higher again Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, the futures are mixed at 12: AM EDT with ES down just 0.04% but NQ up the same amount.  On Thursday ES had its worst day since July 8th.  So much for last night's doji star.  We now have a new descending RTC going and the indicators are all falling off overbought and there's no sign of a rally in the overnight so there is just nothing bullish about this chart.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2107.42 to 2101.25. And that wasn't enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator is now back to bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote that "I have to think there's more downside coming despite Wednesday's gains."  And that was true too as the dollar gapped down for a half-percent loss on a green inverted hammer.  That's a reversal candle but not supported by the indicators which are all in retreat and only halfway from overbought down to oversold.  So I can't really call this one for Friday.

Euro:  And last night I also wrote "it's possible the euro could move higher on Thursday.". And that possibility came true with a jump past resistance to close at 1.1006.  So we now have a new rising RTC established along with rising indicators nowhere near overbought.  That all looks bullish except for a non-trivial sell-off in the new overnight so I'm staying away from this one for Friday.

Transportation:  Holy moly!  After just three small down days in the past two weeks the trans got slamma-jamma'ed on Thursday, tanking over 2% on a tall tall red marubozu.  That peaked all the indicators and sent them on their way lower back towards oversold so there's nothing bullish about this chart.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       7      1       4           2       0.900    803

     And the winner is...

I dunno - things are looking pretty ugly tonight.  And since there are no technical reversal signs on any chart I can see I guess I'll just have to call Friday lower.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Well at least I was right to stay away from VZ last night.  Despite a hammer and a lower BB touch it managed to go lower on Thursday anyway, this time with a spinning top and yes, another lower BB touch.  So with indicators still not yet oversold that leaves us right where  we were last night - still no buy.

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