Thursday, June 16, 2016

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday lower.
  • ES pivot 2075.33.  Holding below is bearish..
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Original vintage poster SIMPLON LINE SION VALAIS 1933 BaumbergerLast night I called Wednesday as uncertain as a Fed day and that was a good move.  The Dow waffled ahead of the Fed weakly higher, than suddenly spiked at the 2 PM announcement  Then it fell but then retraced to return to where it started until 3:30 PM at which point it fell off a cliff to end the day down 34 points.  I've gone over the news and I'm still not sure just what happened at 3:30 to trigger this decline.  If anyone out there has an inkling, I'm all ears.  So in the meantime, I'm once again out of time and this is another Night Owl Lite night.  I'll weight in on Thusday but without all the details.  It's just as well as we've got a triple-witching coming up so some pre-positioning gyrations are not out of the question.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:10 AM EDT with ES down 0.23%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises  from 2073.17 to 2075.33.  That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator returns to bearish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756

June       3      3       4           1       0.571      99

     And the winner is...

The delayed post-Fed selloff on Wednesday afternoon seems to be carrying over into the new overnight as all the futures continue to drift lower.  What looked like a bottom-finding exercise Monday and Tuesday has now evaporated as fragile support has simply given way.  With the charts all looking negative and oil falling again, I'm afraid I'm going to have to call Thursday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.


  1. The reason for the drop is because the latest poll of polls puts Brexit in the lead, and people are taking their assets, now or never. Maybe.

    1. I get that part, but what I don't understand is why after doing basically nothing following the 2 PM Fed announcement, did the market suddenly sell off at 3:30 PM. The Brexit vote isn't til next week.

    2. Expected Ipsos MORI poll have "Leave" come out ahead for first time. Released yesterday, published today Evening Standard. Now polls about Brexit are the equivalent of Friday Jobs report, methinks.

    3. Ha hah, that's about it. FWIW, I have a UK friend who is a pretty smart guy and he's quite adamant about voting to leave.


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