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- Wednesday uncertain.
- ES pivot 2073.17. No guidance as of this writing..
- Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias lower.
- YM futures trader: no trade tonight.
I did mention last night that my call for a higher close Tuesday was risky. I was figuring largely that the VIX looked ready to roll over (which it did) and that that would help stocks. In the end it was too little, too late, though we did finish well off the intraday lows and so the damage was limited. Blame it on Breximania or German bond rates, but the market was simply not ready to sound the all-clear. So we now continue to Wednesday.
It is my long-standing policy not to call Fed days. There's just too much news-driven variability that isn't reflected in the charts. Accordingly, we're doing a Night Owl Lite night as there's no point in analyzing charts whose results I plan to ignore anyway.
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 1:10 AM EDT with ES down 0.10%.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2084.25 to 2073.17. That leaves ES sitting exactly on top of its new pivot right now so there's no guidance here.
January 9 5 5 0 0.643 1433
February 9 3 5 3 0.800 1133
March 8 6 6 1 0.600 222
April 6 4 8 2 0.667 416
May 9 3 4 4 0.813 756
June 3 3 3 1 0.571 99
And the winner is...
As I mentioned above, as far as I'm concerned all Fed days are uncertain. There's just no telling what shenanigans Uncle Ben or now Auntie Janet might have up their sleeves. For the record, I think a June rate hike is deader than a doornail and that goes for July too. But the tea leaf parsers will be out in full force at 2 PM, dissecting every last comma, conditional, and future perfect tense in the official statement. So we'll just leave it at that and call Wednesday uncertain.
YM Futures Trader
No trade tonight.