Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2073.17.  No guidance as of this writing..
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Original vintage poster SIMPLON LINE SION VALAIS 1933 BaumbergerI did mention last night that my call for a higher close Tuesday was risky.  I was figuring largely that the VIX looked ready to roll over (which it did) and that that would help stocks.  In the end it was too little, too late, though we did finish well off the intraday lows and so the damage was limited.  Blame it on Breximania or German bond rates, but the market was simply not ready to sound the all-clear.  So we now continue to Wednesday.

It is my long-standing policy not to call Fed days.  There's just too much news-driven variability that isn't reflected in the charts.  Accordingly, we're doing a Night Owl Lite night as there's no point in analyzing charts whose results I plan to ignore anyway.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 1:10 AM EDT with ES down 0.10%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2084.25 to 2073.17.  That leaves ES sitting exactly on top of its new pivot right now so there's no guidance here.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756

June       3      3       3           1       0.571      99

     And the winner is...

As I mentioned above, as far as I'm concerned all Fed days are uncertain.  There's just no telling what shenanigans Uncle Ben or now Auntie Janet might have up their sleeves.  For the record, I think a June rate hike is deader than a doornail and that goes for July too.  But the tea leaf parsers will be out in full force at 2 PM, dissecting every last comma, conditional, and future perfect tense in the official statement.  So we'll just leave it at that and call Wednesday uncertain.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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