Friday, June 17, 2016

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday higher.
  • ES pivot 2069.75.  Holding above is bullish..
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Original vintage poster SIMPLON LINE SION VALAIS 1933 BaumbergerThings were looking good early o for my call for a lower close Thursday but that didn't last long.  The 10 AM reversal hour arrived and the Dow steadily marched higher for the rest of the day, finally closing up 93 points.  Looking back at the charts, I'm not sure what I could have done differently, but such is life.  With a seemingly never ending parade of Real Life (TM) responsibilities getting in the way ofwhat really matters (watching the market), tonight is yet another Night Owl Lite night.  I did analyze the charts, I'm just not writing details about each one.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly higher at 12:21 AM EDT with ES up 0.05%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls  from 2075.58 to 2069.75.  And afternoon rally in ES was enough to finally put it back above its new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756

June       3      4       4           1       0.500       6

     And the winner is...

We got a number of decent reversal signs on the charts Thursday including strong hammers in the Dow, SPX, and ES, all of which are also quite oversold now.  We also got a tall inverted hammer as a bearish engulfing pattern out of the VIX along with a bearish stocahstic crossover - quite negative for that.  It's always fairly risky making calls ahead of op-ex days, particularly triple-witching but I'm really liking the looks of the charts tonight.  So I'm throwing all caution to the wind and calling Friday higher.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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