Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher.
• ES pivot 2062.33.  Holding above is bullish..
• Rest of week bias higher technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Recap

Last Thursday night I noted that it was risky to call op-ex days, but I'd already called Wednesday as uncertain, it being a Fed day.  So I sowed te wind, calling the market higher Friday, and then proceeded to reap the whirlwind as the Dow sank 58 points, putatively on more Brexit worries.  Not a big loss to be sure, but I never like being wrong.  Let's see if we can't do a bit better moving on into the last full week of June.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow tried to recover from its early losses but in the end didn't quite manage to, finishing with a second hammer in a row, sitting near the top of Thursday's candle.  Indicators continue quite oversold though  so I can't help but thinking there's more upside to come here.

The VIX:  And on Friday the VIX gained a tiny 0.21% on a small doji star  But with indicators still overbought and a completed bearish stochastic crossover, it's hard to see a reversal higher form here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:17 AM EDT with ES up a a strong 1.19%. On Friday, despite a move lower, ES put in a classic bullish piercing pattern that left indicators quite oversold.  The new Sunday overnight seems to be confirming that as it is gapping higher in non-trivial fashion.  That would bode well for an advance on Monday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot edges up from 2060.92 to 2062.33.  Thar leaves ES well above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.  Reminder - we ar enow running the "U" contrat.

Dollar index: After an inverted hammer last Thursday the dollar confirmed it with a gap-down red spinning top for a 0.39% loss to complete a bearish stochastic crossover.  This looks like more downside ahead to me.

Euro:  After a bullihs engulfing candle last Friday the euro is taking a big leaop higher in the Sunday overnight with  0.70% gap-up jump almost back to resistance at 1.14.  That's sending all the indicators higher along with a neatly completed bullish stochasti corssover.  It looks now like hte euro is going higher on Monday.

Transportation:  And finally, this is more what I was looking for on Friday.  On a day the rest of the market fell, the trans put in a solid 0.58% advance confirming Thursday'sdagger-like hammer that tested their lowr BB.  This gave us a bullish setup on a descending RTC exit and with the indicators still all oversold, I'll bet there's more upside left on Monday.

Accuracy:  

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       3      5       4           1       0.444     -52
     And the winner is...

All the bullish signs I noted last Thursday are still in play only more so.  I don't know what happened Friday - I'll just chalk it up to op-ex games.  But continuing bullish charts plus some strong guidance form the futures tonight leads me to try again and call Monday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.