Monday, June 20, 2016

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday higher.
  • ES pivot 2062.33.  Holding above is bullish..
  • Rest of week bias higher technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Last Thursday night I noted that it was risky to call op-ex days, but I'd already called Wednesday as uncertain, it being a Fed day.  So I sowed te wind, calling the market higher Friday, and then proceeded to reap the whirlwind as the Dow sank 58 points, putatively on more Brexit worries.  Not a big loss to be sure, but I never like being wrong.  Let's see if we can't do a bit better moving on into the last full week of June.

The technicals

The DowOn Friday the Dow tried to recover from its early losses but in the end didn't quite manage to, finishing with a second hammer in a row, sitting near the top of Thursday's candle.  Indicators continue quite oversold though  so I can't help but thinking there's more upside to come here.

The VIX:  And on Friday the VIX gained a tiny 0.21% on a small doji star  But with indicators still overbought and a completed bearish stochastic crossover, it's hard to see a reversal higher form here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:17 AM EDT with ES up a a strong 1.19%. On Friday, despite a move lower, ES put in a classic bullish piercing pattern that left indicators quite oversold.  The new Sunday overnight seems to be confirming that as it is gapping higher in non-trivial fashion.  That would bode well for an advance on Monday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot edges up from 2060.92 to 2062.33.  Thar leaves ES well above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.  Reminder - we ar enow running the "U" contrat.

Dollar index: After an inverted hammer last Thursday the dollar confirmed it with a gap-down red spinning top for a 0.39% loss to complete a bearish stochastic crossover.  This looks like more downside ahead to me.

Euro:  After a bullihs engulfing candle last Friday the euro is taking a big leaop higher in the Sunday overnight with  0.70% gap-up jump almost back to resistance at 1.14.  That's sending all the indicators higher along with a neatly completed bullish stochasti corssover.  It looks now like hte euro is going higher on Monday.

Transportation:  And finally, this is more what I was looking for on Friday.  On a day the rest of the market fell, the trans put in a solid 0.58% advance confirming Thursday'sdagger-like hammer that tested their lowr BB.  This gave us a bullish setup on a descending RTC exit and with the indicators still all oversold, I'll bet there's more upside left on Monday.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       3      5       4           1       0.444     -52

     And the winner is...

All the bullish signs I noted last Thursday are still in play only more so.  I don't know what happened Friday - I'll just chalk it up to op-ex games.  But continuing bullish charts plus some strong guidance form the futures tonight leads me to try again and call Monday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Due to some people who just won't honor my request not to post spam on my blog, I have had to re-enable comment moderation. Comments may take up to 24 hour to appear, depending on when they're made. Sorry about that.