Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2084.42.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of  week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Tuesday was a pretty blah day on the market as the Dow mostly meandered about aimlessly, finishing up all of 25 points.  That satisfies my call for a higher close but it's hardly a major victory.  I've got a feeling that we're in for more of the same until we get this Brexomania nonsense over with.  It's just like a looming Fed day.  Accordingly, there's little point in doing detailed chart analyses since I expect most everyone will just be sitting on their hands until we get a result.  Therefore, it's another Night Owl Lite night.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly higher at 12:16 AM EDT with ES up 0.06%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot nudges higher from 2079.00 to 2080.17.  That still leaves ES above its new pivot , though not by much so this indicator is now only weakly bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       4      5       4           1       0.500     -37

     And the winner is...

I think as the Brexit vote approaches we're just going to see more of this low-volume, small range action as everyone sits on their hands waiting for the results.  Until then, Mr. Market will simply be stuck in neutral, so I'm just calling Wednesday uncertain.  That's all I got.  For what it's worth, the technical bias of the market remains weakly higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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