Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2081.08.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Recap

Last night I was looking for more listless action ahead of the you-know-what on Thursday and that's sort of what we got.  The range was bigger than Tuesday but the net result ws still just a 49 point loss in the Dow.  I was going to start a Brexit drinking game where every time someone says "Brexit" on CNBC, you have a drink.  I quickly changed that to take a sip, but then realized I didn't have enough alcohol in the house for even that.  So as we near the Mother of All Uncertainties, it's another Night Owl Lite night.  There's only one thing that's going to move the markets the rest of this week - the B-word.  I for one, am already over it

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:16 AM EDT with ES up 0.47%. Clearly the futures are pricing in a "stay" vote.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot inches up from 2080.00 to 2081.08.  But ES continues above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       4      5       5           1       0.500     -37

     And the winner is...

If there was any doubt as to what's going to control Thursday's action, consider the following notice I just got from my broker:

"There is an important referendum in the UK on 23 June 2016 regarding Britain's continued membership in the European Union. Regardless of the final result, significant volatility is expected across financial markets worldwide, particularly in currency and GBP denominated equity markets. Additionally, markets associated with EUR and EUR-linked assets are likely to experience substantial volatility in the event of an unexpected result."

'Nuff said.  Bottom line: Thursday uncertain.  Watch for all heck to break loose on Friday.

Sit, stay!

My own guess, and since everyone else has weighed in I might as well too - the decision will be to stay.  And here's why.  Most people seem to be perplexed about exactly what a "leave" decision would mean.  And when people are uncertain about taking action about something, they tend to do nothing.  So I say sit, stay..

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.