Friday, June 24, 2016

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday way lower.
  • ES pivot 2100.67.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Next week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.


ES, daily
Wow.  I'm speechless.  I've been doing this for 12 years now and I've never seen anything like this, not even in the depths of the Great Recession in 2008.  There's really nothing to say at this point.  Just look at the futures right now.  Mr. Market simply got caught with his pants down and was totally suckered in on Brexit.  Tonight's another Night Owl Lite night because there's no point at all in analyzing any charts.  One look at the futures tells you all you need to know.  They're gonna be hitting the bottle big time in Brussels on Friday, that's for sure.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 1:41 AM EDT with ES down a mind-boggling 4.90%. I had to stare at that number for a while to be sure I was reading it right.  At first I thought it was 1.90% (which would be bad enough).  When I saw 4.90%, I was stunned.  And the only reason they weren't lower is because they hit the 5% trading circuit breaker.  Holy moly.  And the volume's been crazy all night long.  At 2 AM, there's usually only a smattering of cintracts crossing the tape.  Right now it's in the thousands.  Amazing.

Euro, daily
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2081.08 to 2100.67.  Right now ES is needless to say, way way below its new pivot so this indicator is a roaring bear.

Euro:  The euro is off almost as much as ES right now, but has now crashed through its 200 day MA - never a good sign.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       4      5       6           1       0.500     -37

     And the winner is...

Well my job is real simple tonight: Friday lower.  Lots lower.  It will be very interesting to see how this plays out.  Me, I'm going to hit "Publish" and then I'm heading for my fallout shelter.  That's all she wrote, hooh boy.  See you all again Sunday night, if the stock market is still around then.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.


  1. What a thrill to witness all this! And it's not the end yet. Thank you for making an attempt to analyze all this craziness. I can't even think any more, astonished by the magnitude of the fallout. Fortunately, I had 3 short positions in the S&P's, but God knows if I will still be a winner by day's end given the volatility. Good luck to you and fellow traders.

    1. Crazy stuff indeed. It's Bremageddon! Actually, when I checked in this morning, the damage wasn't nearly as bad as it looked like it might be at 2 AM Friday. My trading account was actually up, thanks to a core position in MO and a bunch of REIT's. Sure looks like a lot of people were caught with their shorts down, literally.

      I think that this will eventually all sort out, once people wake up Monday morning and find that the earth is still rotating about its axis and the sun is still rising in the east.

      Doesn't look quite so good for the bureaucrats in Brussels though. I think this is the beginning of the end for the EU. Happy trading - I'm sitting this one out.


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