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- Tuesdqy higher.
- ES pivot 2084.25. Holding below is bearish.
- Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias lower.
- YM futures trader: no trade tonight.
Last night it looked to me like the market was going lower Monday and that is indeed just where it went with the Dow off another 133 points. This is to my mind a bit unusual given that I'd expect mostly a bunch of hand-sitting ahead of a Fed meeting. Something's clearly afoot here so let's see whaqat the hcarts have to say about Tuesday.
The Dow: On Monday the Dow followed up Friday's gap-down red candle with an even bigger gap-down red candle. Indicators continue falling - nothing bullish here at all.
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly higher at 12:33 AM EDT with ES up 0.06%. ES fell along with everything else on Monday - no reversal sign here yet. However, the new overnight is forming a hammer, though it's dangerous to make any assumptions from half-baked candles.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2099.58 to 2084.25. And even that's not enough to bring ES back above its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.
Dollar index: Well I did get the dollar wrong on Monday It lot 0.22%, unable to make any headway from Friday's highs.The resulting candle is indeterminate, so no call here tonight.
Euro: And of course I missed the euro too which bounced nicely back to 1.13320 on Monday. But indicators continue to fall off of overbought so I'm standing aside here tonight.
Transportation: Last night I wrote that "the 200 day MA [is] now not too far distant at 7718, it's not inconceivable for the trans to go have a look on Monday." Well on Monday the trans looked, crashed right through, and never looked back with a big 1.14% red marubozu that sent all the indicators in a headlong rush towards oversold. There's nothing bullish about this chart tonight.
Month right wrong no call conditional batting Dow
January 9 5 5 0 0.643 1433
February 9 3 5 3 0.800 1133
March 8 6 6 1 0.600 222
April 6 4 8 2 0.667 416
May 9 3 4 4 0.813 756
June 3 2 3 1 0.667 155
And the winner is...
The charts all look quite negative tonight. But I have the feeling that this selling has gotten pretty overdone. Of particular interest is the VIX, which looks about as due for a fall as it ever does. If I played the VIX ETF, I'd be shorting it like mad right now. ES also is forming a hammer and drifting higher in the overnight. The conservative in me says wait til we see the bottom put in but oh what the heck, I'll just go for it and call Tuesday higher. I'll be the first to admit it's a risky call.
YM Futures Trader
No trade tonight.