Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday higher.
  • ES pivot 2123.25.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

On Monday the Dow confirmed last Friday's inverted hammer with a 52 point loss on a candle where the real boy for a change was larger than the tails.  Even this though only leaves us at the lower end of an area we've been visiting for a week now.  So what's the deal?  Is this the start of a new trend lower or do we bounce off thee levels and move higher?  Scouring the charts is the only way I know of to answer these questions so let's get out the Brillo and have at it as op-ex week rolls on.

The technicals

The VIX:  On Monday, the VIX made a bearish stochastic crossover despite a tiny 0.56% gain.  The tall red candle punching down through its 200 day MA (for the second day in a row) plus highly overbought indicators makes it look like the VIX really wants to go lower.  Oh yes, and we now have a bearish trigger on a rising RTC exit.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:36 AM EDT with ES up 0.29%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2130.83 to 2123.25.  That's enough at last to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304

August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October    6      1       3           1       0.875     184

     And the winner is...

We're seeing a few reversal signs tonight, particularly from the trans which have now gone oversold and the VIX which looks more than ready to move lower (see above).  Oil has also sold off for two days now and could be ready for a bounce.  Add in futures that are guiding higher and I'm going to go out on a limb, not waaay out, but still out, and call Tuesday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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