Monday, April 18, 2016

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday lower.
  • ES pivot 2074.83.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of  week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: no trade.

Original vintage poster VEVEY WINEMAKER GIRL LAKE ALPS c.1950Well it looks like I picked a good day to take a vacation last Friday since the Dow ended the day off all of 29 points.  Tonight we're back in business but it's going to be a Night Owl Lite night again.  Op-ex Friday was pretty much a bust and more or less a re-run of Thursday so there's not much to learn from doing the detailed charts.  So tonight it's just the results, no blather,

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:21 AM EDT with ES down 0.60%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dips from 2075.58 to 2074.83. ES has now fallen well below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      4      1       4           1       0.833     347

     And the winner is...

The market's been looking kind of toppy for the past two days as the Dow encountered strong resistance just south of 18,000 after hitting its upper BB.  Tonight, judging by the futures and oil moving lower again it looks like it's finally ready to roll over so I'm going to go ahead and call Monday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

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