Wednesday, April 13, 2016

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday higher.
  • ES pivot 2047.83.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade.

GENEVA VINTAGE TRAVEL POSTER Switzerland RARE HOT NEWHuh - well that was interesting,  After some back and forth out the gate, on Tuesday the Dow then motored higher to finish up 165 points by the closing bell.  This finally moves the needle so let's take a quick look at the charts for Wednesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  A tall green marubozu here generated a bullish stochastic crossover as well as a bullish setup on a descending RTC exit  The upper BB isn't til 17,846 so there's still a bit of room to run.

The VIX: After three days of back & forth, the VIX finally broke down on Tuesday, off nearly 9% for a bearish stochastic crossover.  That's finally looking like more downside on the way.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:15 AM EDT with ES up 0.23%.  Es resolved two days of indecision on Tuesday to the upside with a tall green near-marubozu to confirm a bullish stochashtic crossover.  that all looks good except for the fact that there's strong resistance at 2066. And ES seems to be gearing up for that already with a run higher in the overnight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2041.17 to 2047.83. That now puts ES above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.

Dollar index:   The dollar has now broken six-month support and with the failure of Monday's spinning top on Tuesday, there's no sign of an immediate move higher here.

Euro, daily
Euro:  However, the euro extended its indecision streak to nine in a row on Tuesday.  Just look at this chart - doji after doji after doji, with nothing to show for them.  And the new overnight's no help either  So there's still no direction here.

Transportation:  On Tuesday the trans confirmed their bullish stochastic crossover as they continue to see-saw higher, down-up-down-up.  We're nearing the 200 day MA and have already made two attempts on it in the last three days.  With indicators still just barely oversold, it's looking good for the trans to take another shot at 7796 on Wednesday.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      3      1       3           1       0.800     160

     And the winner is...

Tuesday's action seems to have kicked the market out of its recent stupor and produced a number of decent bullish signs.  With the overnight futures also guiding higher, and mindful of the fact that ES has alternate between gains and losses for six straight days now, I'm going to go ahead and call Wednesday higher

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

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