Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2041.17.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Contrary to my expectations, the Dow took off higher Monday mor3ning, but it finally came back in to end the day with a 21 point loss, vindicating my call for a lower close.  But that's par for the course on op-ex weeks and we're probably in for more of the same as the week rolls on  Meanwhile, it's time for another Night Owl Lite night so we cut straight to the chase and skip the individual chart details tonight.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:32 AM EDT with ES up 0.12%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dips from 2041.75 to 2041.17. That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      3      1       2           1       0.800     160
 
     And the winner is...

I think that the forces that have been pushing the market lower lately are still there but are beginning to abate and we're getting closer to a reversal.  Unfortunately, the sorts of candles we got on Tuesday require confirmation.  And we're still not really sufficiently oversold so as to be able to call a move higher, though I do think one's coming before Friday.  While there's a possibility it could happen sooner, the signs aren't strong enough to do so now.  I hate to sound wishy-washy but I'm afraid I'm going to have to call Tuesday uncertain.  It could be a bottoming day..

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..