Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2129.00.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Resr of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

On Monday the Dow closed in on its record high levels from last year with an 80 point advance.  That leaves us with some interesting charts so let's take a look at how that will influence Tuesday.

The technicals

The DowThe Dow's push on Monday just touched its upper BB before falling back to form a green inverted hammer.  And that's a bearish sign.  Along with highly overbought indicators, this pattern is making me nervous.

The VIX:  And here's something that also makes me nervous - on Monday the VIX rose 2.58% on a day the rest of the market was higher too.  This indicates it's found support around the 13.20 level.  And while the stochastic remains stuck on the floor, the other indicators have begun rising off extreme oversold levels.  This small green spinning top make sme think there's more upside ahead for the VIX.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly higher at 12:15 AM EDT with ES up 0.06%. On Monday, ES hit its highest level for this contract at 2136.75 just below its upper BB before falling back a bit for a fat green inverted hammer.  Indicators remain overbought and the new overnight doesn't seem to be too interested in any further advances making me wonder if there's enough mojo here to keep pushing higher on Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2111.17 to 2129.00.  That once again leaves ES above its new pivot, though now not by much.  However, this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index: After trying to break above its 200 day MA on Friday, the dollar tried, and failed again on Monday, this time with a small gap-up doji star.  This could be an evening star in formation.  I'd certainly be wary of going long the dolalr right here.

Euro:  After a long-legged spinning top on Friday, the euro put i, yes, anotherspinning top on Monday, this one a bit shorter but still centered around the 1.10837 area.  Indicators are wandering around between overbought and oversold, some rising, some falling.  So with all this indecision, there's no way I can tell where this one is going on Tuesday.

Transportation:  After busting through their 200 day MA on Friday, on Monday the trans added another 0.37% to that with a small doji star that looks a lot like they're running out of gas.  This is a reversal warnign worth paying attention to.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393 July       2      2       1           0       0.500    -225

     And the winner is...

While Monday posted some solid gains, we also hit a number of upper BB's and posted some reversal candles including one on the VIX.  That prevents me from being outright bullish at this point.  However, they also require confirmation, so I also can't come right out with a bearish call (even though I'm now thinking we're due for at least a bit of retracement with the market near record highs).  So about all that leaves is Tuesday uncertain.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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