Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher only if ES breaks above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2141.17.  Breaking above is bullish, below is bearish.
• Resr of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Recap

Well it was a gutsy move with a reasonable backstory to call Wednesday lower.  Just one problem - it was wrong.  Now we nearly made it, as the Dow did in fact move steadily lower until lunch time.  But then it began an afternoon rally that sent it all of 24 points higher on the day.  The Nasdaq did manage to finish lower but my call is for the Dow so that's a miss.  Now we have to go back to the well and figure out when this rally might end.  But first,

Political Rant

      and Quote of the Day:

"Now it’s time for us to move to New Zealand.”

      -- Ruth Bader Ginsberg, US Supreme Court Justice, issuing an opinion on what to do if Donald Trump wins the election.

Well, ya know Ruthie, if that happens I will personally buy you a one-way ticket to Auckland on Qantas, if you promise not to return.  For that matter, I'd be more than happy to buy you a seat on the first manned mission to Mars, same terms  This isn't a joke, either.  I'm quite serious.  Of course you'll have to fly economy, but it doesn't seem like you'll mind too much.  So just send me a comment and we'll arrange the details, 'K?  Love ya, XOXOX, The Night Owl.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are essentially flat at 12:22 AM EDT with ES down just one tick but YM up 2. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2141.17 to 2145.92.  That leaves ES exactly on top of its new pivot so there's no guidance from this indicator tonight.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393 
July       2      3       2           0       0.400    -249
     And the winner is...

All the forces that were in play last night remain tonight.  Everything's overbought, the VIX is at support at multi0-year lows, oil seems disinterested in moving higher and the futures are stalled out in the new overnight.  But with the desire to avoid too much tape fighting and with ES right on top of its new pivot, this seems like a good time to make a conditional call: if ES breaks above its new pivot by mid-morning Thursday, we'll close higher, but if it breaks below the pivot by that time, we close lower.  Watch the 10:45 AM zone.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.